​For the fifth game on Northwestern’s fall slate, Ball State travels to Evanston on October 10 aiming to mount a surprising upset. As the Wildcats’ third and final non-conference contest of the regular season, the Cardinals aren’t expected to pose a severe challenge. Ball State returns 36% of its production overall, with 47% coming from offense and 24% from defense. The team sits 123rd in the FBS in returning production. In 2025, Ball State posted a 4-8 overall record with a 3-5 mark in the MAC, under head coach Mike Uremovich, who is in his second season. For 2026, SP+ numbers place the Cardinals at 134th overall, with 136th on offense, 128th on defense, and 135th on special teams.
Over the past three seasons, Ball State hasn’t surpassed four wins, and Uremovich’s first year did little to alter that trajectory. The MAC is frequently regarded as one of the weaker conferences in the FBS, and teams from that league often struggle against Power Five programs. A telling moment from 2025 is the 31-0 loss to Purdue to start the season, the same Purdue squad that finished 2-10 that year. Among all 136 FBS teams, Ball State averaged the third-fewest yards per game and the fifth-fewest points per game. The defense wasn’t disastrous, but it still finished in the lower half nationally.
Ball State’s offense centers around its quarterback play. In 2025, Kiael Kelly was a capable runner but inconsistent as a passer. For 2026, the Cardinals added Texas State transfer Keldric Luster and Concord University (DII) transfer Tyler Mizzell. Luster brings dual-threat potential, while Mizzell is more of a pass-first option. If either can deliver consistency and spark, the Cardinals could see meaningful gains and potentially exceed four wins. At running back, the leading non-quarterback rusher departed, and among returners there is only one rushing touchdown recorded. The starter at quarterback is likely to run frequently, echoing Kelly’s usage last year, but it remains an open question who, if anyone, will emerge as a reliable contributor at running back.
The offensive line, which struggled to protect the quarterback and allowed a high rate of tackles-for-loss and sacks, ranked among the worst in the nation. However, it is a veteran unit, with many returning players and some new faces from transfers. If experience translates into improved protection and better run blocking, this line could become a strength rather than a weakness. The Cardinals also overhauled their pass-catching corps in the offseason. Donavon Hamilton returns after posting 20 receptions in 2025, the second-most on Ball State’s receiving corps, and the addition of FAU transfer Jabari Smith Jr. (unrelated to the NBA player) provides a solid receiving option. With a relatively seasoned group at receiver and offensive line, the question remains whether their production will rise above what they managed in 2025.
Defensively, Ball State enters with the third-lowest returning-production figure in the nation, which could hinder consistency and limit immediate improvement. The Cardinals’ unit will need to rely on new contributors and any early-season adjustments to stabilize performance.