​Whatever your hopes and expectations for next season, there’s a respected preseason ranking out there for you. Last week, we reviewed the first two sets of power rankings to drop, Phil Steele’s and Bill Connelly’s SP+. Steele and Connelly are in rough agreement on UNC’s preseason ranking, both in the ACC and the FBS division. Both see UNC in the middle of pack for FBS (60th or 57th) and bottom third of the ACC (twelfth or thirteenth). This week, ESPN’s college Football Power Index (FPI) and Brian Fremeau’s Football Efficiency Index (FEI) were unveiled, with markedly different perspectives on Tar Heel football circa 2026.FPI ranks UNC 42nd in the preseason, which makes them the most optimistic of the four by far. FEI, on the other hand, ranks UNC 81st, the most pessimistic ranking of the four. Oddly enough, both were largely in agreement by the end of last season, ranking UNC 91st and 97th respectively. FPI thinks UNC will improve dramatically from last season, jumping almost 50 spots up the ladder. FEI thinks improvement will be modest. What might be driving such startlingly different projections?AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAll of these computer rankings say their primary data points are returning production (including transfers) and the overall talent level on the roster (via recruiting rankings and portal rankings). UNC last season fielded a team heavy on experienced transfers, many in their last season of eligibility, and as a result returns little by way of production. In fact, UNC returns the least production of any ACC team, having shed nearly 40 transfers in addition to the number of contributors from last season out of eligibility (yes, that’s apparently still possible these days, as no former Tar Heels ran to their favorite circuit court judge for a favorable injunction). Replacing them will be a recruiting class of 40 true freshmen and 1 junior college addition, which makes UNC one of the youngest rosters in the game according to Rotowire (127th with an average age of 19.96).In terms of overall talent, the roster has improved in terms of recruiting stars. Last year’s team had nine blue chips and 44 3-stars. This year’s has 22 blue chips and 60 3-stars. On the other hand, the 2026 recruiting class ranks 17th via On3, adding ten four stars and 31 three stars. The portal class ranked 64th, adding six former four stars who couldn’t earn starting spots at places like LSU, Texas, and Penn State. In other words, while the roster star ratio improves dramatically on paper, almost none of it’s yet produced at the college level, and most of it was attending high school prom four months ago.Most Tar Heel fans hoping for a substantially better team in 2026 lay those hopes at the feet of Bobby Petrino, a substantial upgrade at offensive coordinator over Freddie Kitchens. A competent offense that improves scoring by 11 points a game (as Petrino did at Arkansas two seasons ago) would go a long way towards getting the Be