​The New York Giants have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the NFL season as it nears the midway point. At 5-3-1 they are still in sole possession of first place in a down NFC East. Their magical ride has persisted through injury and included snagging J.J. McCarthy as a reclamation project and trusting Jameis Winston to provide veteran leadership. What is the realistic ceiling of this team? Can they really turn a ticket into the dance into a shocking postseason run? We’ll only know if they make it that far—and one team has done nothing but make New York’s path more difficult.MORE: Jameis Winston used early-2000s one-hit wonder as hard count vs. CommandersLast night’s TNF showcase featured the Washington Commanders riding into New Jersey and outplaying the home side to a 24-21 victory. This follows a Week 5 matchup that ended in a tie as both teams made crucial mistakes near the end of overtime. Outside of these two stumbles the Giants are 5-2. With them they are waking up with genuine concern about what looked to be somewhat doable march to the NFC East title. Now, the closest chaser is the Dallas Cowboys at 4-5. America’s Team gets a really tough test against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. So the Giants could get back a bit more breathing room. There’s no doubt, though, that their margin for error has gotten a lot smaller thanks to their inability to handle the Commanders.Nov 8, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Giants quarterback Jameis Winston (19) runs off the field after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)Giants remaining scheduleThe issue for New York is that there aren’t a ton of gimme wins left on their schedule.Next up is a home date against the surging Jacksonville Jaguars and a road trip to Indianapolis to play the Colts. Then San Francisco rolls into the Big Apple and John Harbaugh’s team has to fly out to play the Seattle Seahawks. Things won’t get that much easier with the Cleveland Browns visiting and an away game against the Detroit Lions. Two divisional games—at Dallas and home against the Philadelphia Eagles may ultimately determine the Giants’ fate.Based on pure back-of-the-napkin predictions, New York could be looking at an 8-8-1 year. This division is only getting one team into the playoffs so it’s division or bust. So much depends on what the Cowboys do and if they can get to 9-8. Also, don’t sleep on the Commanders, who now hold the tiebreaker. There’s no need to panic, but there’s a chance Giants fans look back and have to wonder what-if when it comes to their pesky Washington nemesis.— Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —