​Paraguay’s stunning upset of Germany in the round of 32 at Gillette Stadium was not only one of the 2026 World Cup’s biggest shocks but also one of the most significant knockout-round upsets in history. Paraguay seized an early lead, Germany equalized and pressed for a late winner, but Paraguay held firm and then prevailed in a penalty shootout, claiming its first knockout-round win since the 2010 World Cup.
While many World Cup upsets occur in the group stage and end in ties, the leap from elimination to advancement makes Paraguay’s victory even more extraordinary. How does this rank among the sport’s greatest upsets? In terms of FIFA rankings, Paraguay’s win over Germany is the fourth-largest knockout-round upset since 1994. Germany entered the tournament as the 10th-ranked team, while Paraguay stood 41st, a 31-position gap. OptaStats and Fox Sports place this as the fourth-biggest ranking disparity upset in knockout play since 1994, following Spain vs. Russia (2018, 60 places), Italy vs. South Korea (2002, 34 places), and South Korea vs. Spain (2002, 32 places).
These rankings come from OptaStats, which also list the biggest World Cup knockout-round upsets since 1994. The record holders include Russia’s 2018 shootout victory over Spain (60-place gap), South Korea’s 2002 wins over Italy (34) and over Spain (30-something in penalties), and Paraguay’s 2026 shootout win over Germany (31). Paraguay could further enhance its historic moment if it reaches the next round to potentially face France, a team ranked No. 3 pre-tournament, which would widen the present gap to 38.
This piece originally ran on USA TODAY as part of coverage highlighting Paraguay’s win over Germany as one of the sport’s most notable World Cup upsets.