​This six-part Colts What If series revisits the franchise’s most pivotal moments, from the Peyton Manning decision to playoff heartbreak, quarterback pivots, and coaching chaos, exploring what happened, what might have changed, and how different the Colts could look if a single turning point had gone the other way. For the finale, there was only one place the series could finish. Andrew Luck’s retirement stands as the franchise’s greatest what-if and one of the NFL’s most consequential since 2000. Some moments alter a game, others alter an entire season; Luck’s departure redirected an entire franchise that seemed poised to contend again.
That still stings. The Colts weren’t rebuilding, weren’t saddled with an aging roster, and weren’t trying to squeeze one last run out of a fading quarterback. They had just gone 10-6, won a playoff game on the road against the Texans, and entered Luck’s first season with Frank Reich coming off arguably his best year. The offensive line was finally solidified with the arrival of Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, the defense showed promise, and the team appeared to have escaped the damage of the previous era. Then Luck retired. Everything afterward has been fallout.
The quarterback carousel—the Philip Rivers bridge year, the Carson Wentz trade, the Matt Ryan trade, the Jeff Saturday hire, the Gardner Minshew stopgap, the Anthony Richardson swing, the Daniel Jones pivot—along with endless debates about whether the Colts are good enough, close enough, aggressive enough, or stuck in the middle, all traces back to the night the franchise lost the one player its entire plan hinged upon. Luck didn’t just retire from the Colts; he retired from the version of the Colts they were supposed to become.
That distinction sets Luck’s retirement apart from most franchise-altering departures. He didn’t leave a team unraveling; he left a team on the rise. In 2018, Luck returned from the shoulder injury that had cost him all of 2017 and instantly looked like an elite quarterback again. He threw 39 touchdowns, played efficiently in a revamped offense, protected himself better, released the ball quicker, and helped turn a 1-5 start into a playoff push. The Colts beat Houston on the road in the wild-card round and then fell to Kansas City, a result that felt less like an ending and more like the first step in a larger ascent. The environment around him had finally shifted too. For years, Luck had been asked to survive chaos, carrying poor offensive lines, absorbing brutal hits, and playing through pain while being asked to compensate for organizational missteps. By 2018, that burden was no longer on him. Nelson emerged as an immediate star at guard, and Smith elevated the line’s level of play, signaling a turning point the franchise hoped would sustain its rebuild.