​MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JULY 01: Noelvi Marte of the Cincinnati Reds reacts as he crosses home plate after belting a two-run homer in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on July 01, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles are approaching a critical stretch where they must string together solid baseball to re-establish themselves as real wild-card contenders. The window to do this runs from now until the All-Star break, and inching along at 5-4 could drag it out longer or, worse, push them out of contention altogether.
With that in mind, they head to Cincinnati for a three-game Independence Day weekend series against the Reds. Cincinnati had a strong April but has cooled considerably, posting a 10-17 record in May and 9-17 in June, with only one game played and lost so far in July. Their struggles are clear: they’re a poor-hitting club, carrying a .228/.309/.389 line for the season. The offense is led by Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, and Nathaniel Lowe, while the rest of the lineup sits in “slightly worse than Leody Taveras” territory.
To compound their issues, Cincinnati’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 10 in both starter and reliever ERA. The rotation is a problem despite 23-year-old right-hander Chase Burns delivering early-season Cy Young buzz, including a 2.36 ERA in 14 starts entering Thursday. It’s unlikely Burns will face the Orioles in this series since he pitched against the Brewers on Thursday. Three Reds starters sit with ERAs over 5, and their closer isn’t far behind, over 6, making it a tough path to contend.
For the Orioles, the task is straightforward in theory—compete and outperform the Reds to make this series meaningful. They’ve shown lately that they can stumble against even weaker teams, such as the Angels, so there’s no guarantee of superiority. The Reds enter with a comparable record, so the Orioles aren’t necessarily favored. It’s a three-game set where one team will leave feeling a bit better about itself, and if it’s not the Orioles, their path back to contention narrows further.
Here’s how the series shapes up game by game. Friday’s 7:10 p.m. Eastern start pits BAL right-hander Trevor Rogers (4.99 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.311 WHIP in 15 games) against CIN right-hander Brady Singer (5.12 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 1.539 WHIP in 16 games). Rogers is coming off a June in which he looked like his old self across five starts, allowing just a .510 OPS against and posting a 2.05 ERA. That performance should play, but the Reds, despite a disappointing offense, fare better against lefties than righties for the moment.