​If you spend any time online watching or listening to national analysts rank and dissect quarterback rankings, you’ve probably noticed a split when it comes to Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback Sam Darnold. He’s occasionally placed in the top 10, often hovering around seven to ten, such as on NFL.com, but that view is not the majority. More frequently, he lands between 12 and 20, like on ESPN. Gregg Rosenthal even has him at the 13th spot. With such a wide range in how he’s perceived for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, the question remains: is Darnold a top-10 quarterback? That’s what we’ll explore today. How did I do? pic.twitter.com/YlATs2R8rn— Tony Farmer (@Tonysmarkettips) June 16, 2026
The Analytics There’s no denying that the start of Sam Darnold’s career was rocky. Drafted by the New York Jets, he was expected to run a Peyton Manning-style offense under Adam Gase, which was like handing a college textbook to a middle school student and asking them to master it. Inevitably, there were bumps. He averaged roughly 2,700 passing yards, 13 interceptions, and 15 touchdowns per season, with a completion rate around 59.8% and a passer rating of 78.63 over three years with the Jets—hardly ideal for a third overall pick in the 2018 draft.
In his next stop with the Carolina Panthers, Matt Rhule tried to install his college offense with Darnold under center. Any Seahawks or college-to-NFL offense observer will tell you that college schemes don’t always translate well to the NFL. Darnold started 12 games in his first year with the Panthers and six the next season. He threw for a total of 3,670 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, with a 59.5% completion rate and a 76.64 passer rating. It appeared he was regressing, and much of the national media seemed to have written him off. Those were the numbers from his first two NFL stops.
He spent a year as the backup to Brock Purdy with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. He finally got another starting opportunity with the Vikings, and then secured a long-term contract with the Seahawks in 2025. Over the last two seasons, Darnold has helped his teams to 14-3 regular-season records in back-to-back years, a feat no other quarterback accomplished while playing for two different teams. He also became the first USC quarterback to win a Super Bowl. Best “highly accurate” throw rate on attempts traveling 20+ air yards (since 2021): 1) Sam Darnold, 2025 – 52.1%; 2) Joe Burrow, 2025 – 51.7%; tied for 3rd (50.0%) were Joe Burrow, 2021, Brock Purdy, 2025, and Jared Goff, 2025. pic.twitter.com/oRIPKknDz1— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 18, 2026
There’s no doubt the last two seasons have been strong for Darnold, but does his recent performance push him into the top tier, or is the conversation still more nuanced than a single stat line can capture?