​In today’s NFL, play-callers walk a delicate line between time-tested football wisdom and the increasingly influential pull of data-driven analytics. One recurring trend, as NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti notes, is the tendency to overcorrect on second down after an incomplete pass on first down by dialing up a run on 2nd-and-10. But Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has consistently resisted that trap. Using Paganetti’s charts built from Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR, the Rams emerge as one of the league’s most pass-happy teams when faced with 2nd-and-10 after a first-down incompletion.
Paganetti’s analysis tracks regular-season and playoff performance for play callers from 2022 through 2025, and it shows McVay at the top of the charts in this specific scenario. He ranks fourth in the NFL with a 72.9% pass rate in 2nd-and-10 situations following a first-down incompletion. Across 73 games, McVay encountered this exact scenario 192 times, calling 140 passes and just 52 runs in those moments. The numbers align with a broader analytics takeaway: league-wide, since 2022, throwing in this exact situation yields a clear edge over running the ball. The success rate advantage for the pass is +16.6 percentage points, and the expected points added (EPA) per play swings by +0.23, contributing to a +6.5 percentage point rise in the eventual series success rate.
McVay’s preference for air-based aggression has been a hallmark of his coaching approach since he took the Rams’ reins in 2017. Rather than tightening up on second down in hopes of avoiding a potential third-and-long, he views 2nd-and-10 as an opportunity to strike with a chunk play. This philosophy has helped shape a high-octane offense, and it played a key role in producing the NFL’s most productive overall offense during the Rams’ 2025 season.
The influence of McVay’s approach extends beyond his own play-calling. His staff and former protégés are well-represented among the league’s top play-callers in this 2nd-and-10 context. Zack Robinson, now offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who previously worked under McVay in Los Angeles, posted the highest pass rate in this niche at 82.9%. Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, another Rams alumnus who previously served as quarterbacks coach under McVay, ranked third on the list, just ahead of his former mentor. Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen, who had a stint as McVay’s offensive coordinator with the Rams, came in at No. 9.
This examination of second-down decision-making underscores a broader theme in contemporary football: the ongoing adoption of analytics to inform play-calling, while some coaches—like McVay—continue to lean into aggressiveness in favorable downs and distances. The Rams, under McVay’s leadership, have demonstrated that embracing a pass-first mindset on 2nd-and-10 after an incomplete first down can pay dividends in both immediate success and long-term offensive efficiency. As teams study these patterns, the influence of McVay’s philosophy—paired with the surrounding coaching tree—continues to shape how the NFL approaches the balance between risk and reward on early downs.