​When an offense opens a drive with an incomplete pass, the next play on second down often sets the tone for the entire sequence. NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti argues that many coaches across the league fall into a common tactical trap: they opt to run on 2nd-and-10 to avoid a potential third-and-long after an unsuccessful first-down pass, hoping to stabilize the drive. Yet, a growing body of data suggests that teams that throw in this critical moment tend to fare better than those that lean into the run, and the discrepancy in success rates is substantial.
Among the league’s top offenses, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has frequently chosen a more conservative path in these situations. Using Paganetti’s analysis cross-referenced with Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR projections from 2022 through 2025 for the 2026 play-caller outlook, Shanahan ranks 19th in the NFL with a 50.7% pass rate in this specific scenario. In 76 games, Shanahan encountered this exact situation 142 times, electing to pass 72 times and run 70 times—roughly a coin-flip outcome that underscores a reluctance to commit to the pass when the clock starts ticking on early downs.
The data challenge the conventional wisdom about Shanahan’s approach. Across the league since 2022, the advantage of passing in this spot is clear: teams that throw on 2nd-and-10 post a +16.6 percentage point higher success rate than those that run, generate an additional +0.23 EPA per play, and experience a +6.5 percentage point increase in the eventual series success rate. By leaning toward the run as often as Shanahan has, the 49ers risk placing themselves behind the chains rather than converting with a more efficient pass.
What makes Shanahan’s ranking notable is the contrast with the philosophies of his coaching tree. Mike McDaniel, the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, ranks sixth in the league in this context, relying on a 66.4% pass rate on 2nd-and-10. Not every disciple in Shanahan’s extended coaching family has followed the same path. Mike LaFleur, who previously served as Shanahan’s passing game coordinator and later worked with McDaniel in San Francisco, and who now leads the Arizona Cardinals after stints with Sean McVay and the Rams, sits at No. 20 with a 48.9% pass rate in the same situation.
The juxtaposition between Shanahan’s approach and the success of his offensive acolytes underscores a striking tension: Shanahan is widely regarded as one of the game’s premier offensive minds, yet the numbers reveal a tendency to overcorrect toward the run in certain situations. As the 49ers look ahead to the 2026 season, leaning more into passing on second down and 10 could unlock greater efficiency for quarterback Brock Purdy and the entire offense, aligning Shanahan’s play-calling with the broader analytics-driven trend that favors passing in this pivotal moment.
This analysis, originally published on Niners Wire, highlights a surprising flaw in Kyle Shanahan’s 2nd-and-10 strategy and points to a potential strategic pivot that could yield meaningful gains for the 49ers in their pursuit of continued offensive excellence.