​The best statistics are the ones that actually work for both hitters and pitchers, and they tend to be mirror images of each other. On Monday we examined offensive efficiency to gauge how the Astros’ offense was holding up. The numbers point in several directions, but the core aim is to compare how many baserunners the Astros allow relative to other teams in the AL and what percentage of those runners score. The same approach should apply to the pitching staff as well.
We pursue this for two main reasons. First, simply watching the Astros can be misleading about their standing league-wide. It’s easy to claim that the Astros’ pitching has been poor at times, but that judgment only makes sense when measured against the rest of the league. So we analyze total baserunners and hits allowed in a broader context. Second, the efficiency rating helps us determine whether the Astros have been unlucky or if they’re operating where they should be.
Why does this matter? As the trade deadline approaches, identifying genuine holes on the roster becomes crucial. If the team has been unlucky, positive regression could correct several issues. If not, a more substantial hole may need to be addressed. A straightforward accounting shows the Astros were 13th out of 15 teams in runs allowed through the weekend, though the Washington series opener complicates that picture. Is positive regression likely? Let’s review the numbers from the weekend’s games across the board.
Runs, Hits, Walks, HBPs, Threats, and Receptions are all part of the picture. The Red Sox posted 34 runs, 70 hits, 22 walks, and various other metrics; the Guardians posted a similar spread; the Yankees, Mariners, White Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Rays, Angels, Astros, Royals, Orioles, Athletics, and Twins each show their own profiles. The league average sits around 40 runs and a bit over 70 hits, with a spread in other categories that highlights a wide variety of outcomes across teams. In short, the data reveals a landscape where some teams have allowed far fewer than 1,000 baserunners, while others have allowed more than 1,100, underscoring the fact that in the AL, teams tend to cluster into the really good or the really not-so-good categories when it comes to mound performance.
Another notable point is that the offense and pitching efficiency ratings don’t align perfectly. That discrepancy largely stems from substantial interleague play and the fact that the National League has generally performed better than the American League this season. The Blue Jays sit as the median in efficiency at .372, a figure meaning that the high scores in certain teams skew the results and, in turn, can make the Astros’ standing look worse than a straightforward numerical comparison would suggest.