​With its expansion to 48 teams, the 2026 World Cup was expected to look different. The addition of more teams and 40 extra matches sparked plenty of buzz and surprise. Heavyweights like Germany and Brazil were eliminated earlier than many anticipated. Lionel Messi and Argentina faced two tough shocks from African sides. And the Golden Boot race featured a slate of prominent stars. Yet as the tournament advances to the final eight, the expanded format resembles the old one more than anyone might have predicted.
Six European teams and one South American squad remain in the quarterfinals. It marks the 19th time in 20 analyzed World Cups that at least seven of the eight quarterfinalists have come from Europe and South America. The only instance of reduced representation for those two continents occurred in 2002, when Senegal, South Korea, and the United States reached the quarterfinals. Morocco stands out as the lone non-European contender in 2026 and, as in 2022, is the sole Africa representative left in the knockout rounds.
The droughts extend to other regions, though. No team from North or Central America and the Caribbean is in the quarterfinals again; Costa Rica was the last regional quarterfinalist in 2014. Asia has not delivered a quarterfinalist since South Korea’s memorable run in 2002. Oceania, which sent New Zealand to this year’s tournament, has never reached the quarterfinals. It’s not for lack of opportunity—expansion granted teams from the rest of the world more slots, yet it hasn’t altered the deepest penetrations into the tournament.
Europe and South America constituted less than half of the 2026 field, marking a historic first in World Cup history. Africa sent nine teams into the round of 32, up from five in 2022, but after two rounds only Morocco remained. Asia, which qualified a record nine teams for 2026, posted a disappointing group stage as only Australia and Japan advanced to the knockout rounds. Meanwhile, the three co-hosts—Mexico, Canada, and the United States—all found themselves in the round of 16, but they went a combined 0-3 there, effectively ending North America’s hopes.
Notably, the only debutant among the final eight this year is Norway, a European nation led by the prolific Erling Haaland that hardly seems a shock quarterfinalist. In the end, the World Cup’s narrative threads about fresh faces and unexpected runs endured in the early stages, but once the business end arrived, Europe and South America returned in force—as they have for most editions.
Methodology: The regional breakdown of quarterfinalists from 1934–2022 comes from the Fjelstul World Cup Database. For 2026, the regional data come from FIFA. Exclusions include 1930 and 1982 due to the absence of a quarterfinal round, while the eight-team second group stage of 1974 and 1978 was counted as a quarterfinal in this analysis. This story originally appeared on USA TODAY and notes that World Cup expansion altered the field without changing the quarterfinal dynamics.