​This year has been the Year of the Injured List for Cubs starting pitchers. If you’ve found yourself refreshing social media for injury updates more often than checking box scores, you’re not alone. Yet the Cubs head into tonight’s game against the Orioles with a 51-40 record. That mark places them seven games back of the Brewers in the division, but it also gives them a decent chance to reach the postseason via the Wild Card. FanGraphs’ odds for the Cubs making the playoffs are visible below; trust me, you’ll want to look at that chart rather than their chances of winning the division.
There was plenty of reason for optimism from Matthew Boyd’s outing on Tuesday. He delivered six scoreless innings, allowing three hits, issuing two walks, and striking out seven Orioles. If he can sustain that level of performance and avoid the injured list, it could be a game-changer for the Cubs as they push to reach the postseason for the second consecutive year.
The flip side is that it’s easy to envision a scenario where everything could unravel somewhat. Here’s a look at all Cubs starting pitchers who have thrown at least five innings this season, including those currently on the injured list who might still return this year: Ben Brown, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Colin Rea, Edward Cabrera, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, David Peterson, Jameson Taillon. Among them, Cabrera and Taillon are currently on the injured list but are throwing again and could be back after the All-Star Break.
Cabrera has been a mixed bag this season. When he’s on, he’s been excellent; when he’s battling blisters, other injuries, or a lack of command, he’s been shaky. Still, he’s clearly an upgrade over Jordan Wicks and David Peterson when healthy. Taillon’s return brings its own set of questions. The 34-year-old has had a notable struggle with the long ball this year; his home-run rate (HR/9) of 2.66 leads all starters with at least 50 innings. The next closest is Jeffrey Springs of the Athletics, at 2.31 HR/9, and Springs pitches in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks in Sacramento.
The challenge for Taillon—and for many Cubs pitchers who are seeing elevated home-run numbers—is that home runs appear to be up league-wide. As the Cubs navigate a rotation dealing with injuries and inconsistency, balancing the risk of giving up too many home runs with the need for reliable innings will be crucial to sustaining their playoff hopes. The season has already tested the depth of the Cubs’ pitching staff, and smart usage of the healthier arms, plus timely contributions from those returning from the IL, will be essential as the stretch run approaches.