​The Los Angeles Rams boast a star-studded roster as they head toward a new fantasy season in 2026, and fantasy owners are sizing up the talent for their own lineups. Last season, the Rams ranked No. 1 offensively, continually lighting up scoreboards with a versatile passing attack complemented by an evolving and increasingly productive run game. That balanced approach helped elevate a handful of players into top-scoring roles, with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams emerging as the primary weapons, while touchdowns were distributed across the roster. Nacua, Williams, Davante Adams, and Colby Parkinson each finished among the Rams’ leading scorers, underscoring the depth and variety of the offense.
Adams led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns, marking the third time in his career he reached that milestone. Parkinson, who stepped into a larger role after Tyler Higbee’s injury, posted a career-high eight TDs and established himself as the team’s primary tight end. Yet, in a twist of predictive analysis, ESPN’s Mike Clay has projected Adams and Parkinson to score fewer touchdowns in 2026 than they did in 2025, drawing on a long-running data-driven methodology. Clay’s research spans more than a decade of statistics and suggests that big-season outcomes often regress the following year for players who reach high touchdown tallies.
To illustrate his approach, Clay points to 263 instances from 2012 through 2024 in which a player reached at least 10 rushing or receiving touchdowns in a season. Of those, 213 players (81.0%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season, with an average drop of 4.8 TDs. When the sample is narrowed to players who tallied 14 or more TDs, 61 of 64 cases (95.3%) saw a decline the following year, with an average decrease around 8.0 TDs. The few exceptions cited include Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014), and Kyren Williams (15 in 2023, 16 in 2024). In 2024, every player who logged 14 or more TDs ended up with fewer trips to the end zone in 2025, a trend that included players such as Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Derrick Henry, Ja’Marr Chase, Williams, Josh Jacobs, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jalen Hurts.
For Adams, this projected regression places him in a particular dilemma. Since 2012, the small group of players who posted more than 14 touchdowns in a prior season rarely maintained that level the following year, and most who did were running backs. Williams and Gurley, when aligned with Sean McVay’s offense, either maintained or amplified their usage, but the broader pattern still raises questions about sustaining a high TD pace. Adams remains the Rams’ No. 1 red-zone and scoring threat, a vital piece of the puzzle for fantasy managers hoping for continued production in the red zone. However, the dynamic within the Rams’ offense could shift—another factor in Clay’s analysis is Williams’ own decline in touchdowns from 2024 to 2025, a slide that Clay attributes in part to Adams’ presence in the passing game.
Adding to the complexity is Terrance Ferguson, who is being groomed to serve as another red-zone option. Ferguson showed flash by scoring twice in the Rams’ final two games of the 2025 season and drawing the final red-zone target in the NFC Championship Game. While Ferguson did not supplant Adams as the top option, his emergence points to a potential redistribution of targets within the red zone and short-yardage situations. If Ferguson secures more opportunities in those critical moments, Adams could see a dip in red-zone looks, further complicating projections for his 2026 TD totals.
Parkinson, like Adams, faces a similar category of analysis due to the McVay-era emphasis on versatile tight ends and second-year players potentially benefiting from system familiarity. Parkinson’s sophomore year put him in a favorable light, and his role could continue to grow as defenses adapt to the Rams’ multiple formations and play-action concepts. The trajectory suggests that Parkinson’s production might rise or at least remain solid, but Clay’s model would caution fantasy managers to temper expectations for a repeat of the 2025 TD tally, given the historical tendency for high-scoring seasons to regress.
In sum, the Rams’ offense remains a high-powered, multi-faceted unit capable of stocking fantasy rosters with a mix of established veterans and rising young players. Adams’ status as the primary red-zone option anchors the group, but the broader distribution of targets and the potential uptick of Terrance Ferguson’s involvement in the red-zone could temper some of the expected TD returns for 2026. Parkinson’s role continues to be a factor for consideration, especially as the Rams’ offense leans into McVay’s patterns that favor smart usage of second-year tight ends and line flexibility. For fantasy managers, the key will be balancing expectation with the data-driven caution that Clay’s methodology emphasizes: even standout performers can experience a regression in touchdowns, particularly in a league where teams frequently adapt to high-scoring seasons by spreading the ball more evenly among capable playmakers.