​With his history at the Renaissance Club, Rory McIlroy could step into the role of favorite at the Scottish Open. A winner in 2023 and runner-up to Chris Gotterup last year, McIlroy isn’t the betting favorite this week as players tune up for the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. That distinction belongs to Scottie Scheffler, who is still chasing a second victory after opening the season by winning the American Express. Scheffler, a four-time runner-up in 2026 (most recently at the Travelers, where he lost in a Monday morning playoff to Viktor Hovland), arrives with great hunger. The oddsmakers are clearly aware of that. So the question becomes: how big of a favorite is Scheffler when he goes up against McIlroy and a strong field in Scotland?
Scottie Scheffler is listed at +495, Rory McIlroy at +990, Jon Rahm at +1300, Ludvig Åberg at +2000, Xander Schauffele at +2000, Tommy Fleetwood at +2050, Matt Fitzpatrick at +2150, Chris Gotterup at +2900, Wyndham Clark at +3400, Tyrrell Hatton at +3400, Justin Thomas at +3500, Robert MacIntyre at +3800, Viktor Hovland at +3800, Patrick Cantlay at +4100, Min Woo Lee at +4900, Nicolai Højgaard at +4900. It would have been nice to see Xander Schauffele at a slightly higher number after his T-51 finish at the Travelers, but we’ll take what’s available at +2000.
Schauffele, the 2022 Scottish Open winner, is clearly comfortable in these conditions in Scotland, following a T-8 finish last year and a T-15 in 2024. The context is favorable: he has shown well against major competition—something the Scottish Open field recognizes with stars like Rahm and Hatton in the mix. Schauffele has a recent record that includes a T-9 at Augusta, a T-7 at Aronimink, and a T-11 at Shinnecock, which suggests he’s poised to contend again. The 2024 Genesis Scottish Open results and the evolving form heading into this year’s event add to the intrigue.
As for the schedule and viewing, Genesis Scottish Open action begins at the Renaissance Club early Thursday on the U.S. East Coast. Here’s how to watch the live coverage in Scotland. While Marco Penge’s return to health and performance after a six-week absence was noteworthy, his current odds at +9000 (improved from a starting +12500) are perhaps too long to justify a bet here. The pick shifts to 2026 PGA Championship winner Aaron Rai, who sits at +7400 and offers a more palatable value given his recent form.
Like Schauffele, Rai’s T-30 finish in Connecticut leaves something to be desired, yet his metrics are strong, and his major-stage results are compelling. It’s difficult to justify placing Rai in the same ballpark as players like Adam Scott (who has missed cuts in several starts), Brooks Koepka (still rounding into form since his return), or Jake Knapp (whose season has been hampered by injuries). In this mix, add Min Woo Lee, Kurt Kitayama, and David Puig above Rai in the current odds, which underscores why some analysts disagree with the prevailing market sentiment.
As the tournament unfolds, the Renaissance Club will provide a stern test for the field, with the Scottish Open offering a lively prelude to the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. The questions of who rises to the top, who proves their mettle against major foes, and who capitalizes on favorable conditions will shape the narrative as this week’s action develops.