​Earlier this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway, when asked about his championship chances under the new Chase for the Championship format, Chase Briscoe said he would need to start winning in bunches. Why? After running thousands of simulations, NASCAR stated that nearly 70 percent of eventual champions began the final 10 races inside the top five. That’s because the top 16 in the standings get reseeded and consolidated for dramatic purposes. The numbers show a clear advantage to starting the final 10 races with a 25-point cushion; starting from a 25-point deficit is still doable, but the odds drop significantly as you fall further back.
In that context, Briscoe’s comments from the 11th seed made a lot of sense. “It’s not going to be easy,” he said. “I think you’re going to have to go on quite a run, right? It’s going to have to be very similar to what Tony (Stewart) was able to do.” This alludes to Stewart’s 2011 championship push, when he was the No. 10 seed and had no wins, yet still managed to win half of the playoff races and clinch the title on a tiebreaker with Carl Edwards. The key difference now is that wins count for far more points than they did in 2011, which changes the math substantially.
Briscoe emphasized that if a driver can win races, a rapid points swing is possible. “If you can win races, you can make up a lot of points really, really quickly,” he said. “So yeah, I think for us right now, there’s a very realistic … We don’t have to run anything crazy. We can get to seventh in points, which at least puts you there. And you could still, if you win two or three of these next eight races—which is possible—you could find yourself maybe even in fifth to sixth in points. So yeah, I definitely think it’s possible. It’s not going to be easy. You’re going to have to go win races. I think we’re more than capable of doing that.”
That line of thinking proved prescient when Briscoe went on to win on Sunday night, vaulting from 11th to 8th in the standings. He reflected on the moment with Motorsport.com on Friday, acknowledging that while the team hadn’t been as consistent as Denny Hamlin or Tyler Reddick, they were close in speed and could hang with the leaders. Hamlin may have edged them in speed at times, Briscoe conceded, but the bigger hurdle remained consistency and capitalizing on opportunities in the playoffs. “We still have a long way to go,” he said, underscoring that the next eight races would be crucial. “We have not been as consistent as Hamlin and Reddick. But from a speed standpoint, I feel like we’ve been there with them. We’re still chasing that extra edge.”
With the win, Briscoe’s playoff outlook shifted, but the math remained challenging. He noted that their current points situation would force them to operate from behind for the playoff stretch, which would color strategy and risk-taking in the coming rounds. The conversation underscored a core truth of the Chase format: starting strong matters, but the ability to win and rack up stage points across multiple races can redefine a driver’s trajectory faster than almost anything else. As the playoffs approach, Briscoe’s mindset—targeting wins, capitalizing on opportunities, and climbing as high as possible in the standings—remains central to his plan for a championship bid.