​When the 49ers face third-and-short or goal-line moments, Kyle Shanahan tends to lean on the simplest option available in his playbook. Since 2022, Shanahan ranks third in the NFL among offensive coordinators for the frequency of quarterback sneaks in one-yard situations, posting a 30.1% rate, according to NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti. Across 76 games that include the postseason, San Francisco encountered 193 of these one-yard scenarios and called for a quarterback sneak 58 times. In this trend, Shanahan sits behind only Joe Brady of the Buffalo Bills (51.9%) and Kellen Moore of the New Orleans Saints (31.0%) in using the quarterback sneak in these critical short-yardage moments. Paganetti’s data underscores the rationale behind Shanahan’s aggressive, math-informed approach.
When a quarterback sneak is chosen in these high-leverage spots, the play tends to be remarkably successful, delivering an 81.8% conversion rate and contributing a substantial +0.45 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, according to Paganetti. In contrast, all other play designs in the same situations register a notably lower success rate of 63.8% and a modest +0.03 EPA per play. This stark contrast highlights the efficiency of Shanahan’s preferred method in tight quarters, aligning with his broader philosophy of maximizing minimal gains with precise execution.
Brock Purdy, the 49ers quarterback who has started under Shanahan since 2022, has been a central figure in this strategy. Purdy has run 160 times for 627 yards and 11 touchdowns over his 49 career games, and those carries have produced 69 first downs. Though Purdy isn’t characterized as a scrambling quarterback, Shanahan has demonstrated a keen eye for deploying him on crucial plays where every yard and every inch matters, leveraging his efficiency in short-yardage situations to sustain drives and push the offense forward.
This analysis reflects a broader trend in Shanahan’s play-calling philosophy: in pivotal short-yardage moments, the data supports a simple, direct approach that can yield outsized rewards. The reliance on quarterback sneaks in these situations is not a reckless gamble but a calculated decision grounded in historical success rates and the potential to swing field position and points with minimal risk. This approach forms a central pillar of the 49ers’ strategy under Shanahan, as reflected in the recent performance metrics and the sustained efficacy of Purdy’s early-career contributions when the stakes are highest.