​As Alex Weiner observed last night, after 91 games the D-backs sat at exactly 45-46, the same mark they had after 91 games in both 2024 and 2025. Yet those two prior seasons diverged dramatically in how the season unfolded. In 2024, Arizona posted the second-best record in the National League from that point forward, going 44-27. However, the Mets were nearly as good, at 45-28, and their stronger finish proved enough to create a three-way tie at 89 wins that included the Diamondbacks, followed by that infamous doubleheader against the Braves where both teams won a tiebreaker against us.
In 2025, the pattern of mediocrity persisted, with the D-backs going 35-36 the rest of the way and finishing at 80 wins. Yet the postseason bar was lower that year, as the Reds secured a playoff spot with 83 wins—the Mets, by contrast, failed to win the tiebreaker. Arizona could have joined the fray as well. In their penultimate series, they rallied to defeat the Dodgers and move to 80-77; winning three of their last five would have left them at 83 wins, matching the Reds, but they lost all five remaining games and were eliminated after Friday night’s defeat in San Diego.
What will the remainder of 2026 bring? Only time will tell. It’s unclear whether the team will buy or sell, and that stance could shape the finish, though it isn’t the sole determinant. After all, Mike Hazen’s late-season sale last year sparked a bit of a tear in the final stretch, keeping things interesting through the last week. Conversely, the 2024 squad added A.J. Puk and Josh Bell and, despite a strong position after 140 games—2.5 games clear—slumped to below .500 the rest of the way, finishing 10-12 and costing them a chance at a deeper run.
Given those histories, predicting the rest of 2026 remains challenging. The chart above makes it clear, though: the remainder of the season is unlikely to mirror 2025 or 2024 exactly. The D-backs’ path will hinge on how they close the gap, how they handle trades or acquisitions, and whether they can sustain momentum down the stretch. Until the final outs are recorded, we can’t lock in a repeat of either previous finish. The coming weeks will reveal whether the club can break the pattern and end the year with a record that defies past trends.