​2026 looms large for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not that any year is trivial, but this one carries a distinct “championship or bust” vibe that isn’t universal around the league. The Buccaneers aren’t required to win a Super Bowl to declare 2026 a success, and their odds—roughly between +4000 and +5000—aren’t exactly friendly for casual bettors. Still, Tampa Bay enters the year as the favorite in the NFC South, and CBS Sports’ optimistic projection envisions them clinching that division title. As for the pessimistic view? If you watched the latter half of last season, you’ve seen a lot of it.
According to CBS’ Tyler Sullivan, “The second-half struggles from Baker Mayfield (14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over his final 11 games in 2025) carry over into 2026. The young pieces the Buccaneers hoped would step up—like Emeka Egbuka and Rueben Bain Jr.—aren’t ready to shoulder that load yet. That allows the rest of the division to narrow the gap, with Atlanta and New Orleans both catching lightning in a bottle at quarterback. For the second straight year, the Bucs miss the playoffs, putting Todd Bowles’ job on the line.”
Tampa Bay’s 2025 narrative followed Mayfield’s trajectory. In the first half, he resembled an MVP candidate, throwing 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions through nine games as the Bucs sat at 6-3. Yet in the final eight games, his production skewed toward mediocrity—10 touchdowns to 9 interceptions—and the team went 2-7. Mayfield’s downturn paralleled the Bucs’ rookie star’s development. Emeka Egbuka reached 100 receiving yards three times in the first nine games, but in the last eight he never topped 64 yards, an imbalance that helped cost him Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Tampa Bay’s next first-round pick is expected to contribute immediately on defense this time around. Many analysts believed Bain—who earned ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors at Miami last season—could be selected in the top 10, perhaps even the top five. The Buccaneers landed him at No. 15, a move they celebrated, but now Bain is expected to contribute right away, and if he doesn’t, pass rush could remain a major weakness in 2026.
The possibility that Atlanta and New Orleans might “catch lightning in a bottle” at quarterback also adds intrigue. Atlanta’s quarterback competition features Tua Tagovailoa, signed after six seasons with the Dolphins, and Michael Penix Jr., the 2024 first-round pick who suffered a torn ACL in November. New Orleans hopes Tyler Shough will build on a solid rookie campaign in which he completed 67.6% of his passes, exceeded 2,300 yards, and posted 10 touchdowns to six interceptions over 11 games. The Buccaneers face New Orleans and Atlanta four times this season, a schedule wrinkle that will matter for both outcomes and search engine visibility alike.
In short, Tampa Bay enters 2026 with high expectations in the NFC South, a need for improved quarterback support and more consistent play from a rising defense. The roster has the talent to contend, but the path to a successful season will hinge on Mayfield rediscovering the form that made the early part of 2025 so promising, on the rookies delivering as expected, and on the defense tightening the gaps that showed up late last year. The road to a deep playoff run is clear but narrow, and the window for a franchise-changing year remains open if the pieces come together.