​Time is running out for the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield. The team isn’t in a hurry to extend Mayfield’s contract, which has a 2026 expiration. Mayfield has drawn a line in the sand, setting a deadline to get something done before the start of training camp. The Bucks report to camp on July 28, a mere 19 days away. The challenge is straightforward to describe, yet difficult to resolve: the market for veteran starting quarterbacks currently spans more than $40 million per year, from the low $20 millions up to the mid-$60s. Where will Mayfield fit in that spectrum?
Even though Mayfield is slated to earn about $40 million this year due to carryover money from 2025, the average annual value on his deal remains $33.33 million. He is due $27 million in cash this season, with potential incentives of up to $5 million. According to reports, the Buccaneers believe they can present Mayfield with an offer that would exceed what any other team might propose. They likely expect that, once they present their bottom-line figure—probably just before July 28—Mayfield will accept. And there’s a chance he will. Sometimes, a secure, tangible option can feel more valuable than a potentially bigger but riskier one, especially when it comes with the risk of injury or ineffectiveness over the full 17-game 2026 slate.
Mayfield, though, appears to be wired a bit differently. He’s stubborn in a way that some would call principled. He may stand firm on this, given that other quarterbacks with comparable or even lesser credentials have breached the $50 million APY mark. The Buccaneers may welcome this stance, confident that whatever happens this season, they’ll still be willing to offer more than anyone else on the market. That’s not a new dynamic for Tampa Bay. After 2023, his first season with the Buccaneers, Mayfield’s single-year deal expired, and Tampa Bay did not use the franchise tag in 2024, with no other franchise pursuing him aggressively, despite several teams arguably needing a quarterback.
This time, the franchise tag landscape shifts: with a 2026 cap number around $39.975 million, the tag for Mayfield would be at least $47.97 million if the Buccaneers controlled the situation into 2027. If the team wins a Super Bowl or Mayfield earns MVP consideration, a tag could bridge into 2027. But a strong 2026 that’s good rather than stellar could put Mayfield in a position to test loyalty and salary again. If he feels undervalued relative to a true ceiling, he might choose to pursue a deal elsewhere, even if that means leaving the Buccaneers’ long-term plan unsettled.
In that possible scenario, the Steelers could emerge as a compelling destination. Their fans would likely embrace Mayfield’s mentality and his Browns-era history, making a move appealing from a public-relations standpoint as well as a football one. If Mayfield departs, the Buccaneers would have to recalibrate their quarterback strategy, turning to the options already on their roster—Jalon Daniels, Jake Browning, and Connor Bazelak—while exploring other potential signals in free agency or the draft.
So, while the Buccaneers appear to have a plan, they must also recognize the need for improved positioning in the market. The interplay between Mayfield’s principles, the perceived value of the offer on the table, and the evolving quarterback market will ultimately shape the path forward. If Mayfield’s prizing of a higher APY or leverage against competing offers persists, Tampa Bay could face a critical decision: risk paying more now to retain him or risk losing him and having to pivot quickly to alternative options. Either way, the clock is ticking, and the path forward will depend on a careful balance of financial strategy, strategic timing, and the evolving dynamics of quarterback valuation in today’s NFL.