​Want to boost your Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. The Indiana Fever head into a grueling showdown tonight, hobbling into the Mortgage Matchup Center to face the Phoenix Mercury in the second leg of a back-to-back. With Caitlin Clark still out, Indiana is eager to snap their skid after Wednesday’s defeat to the Los Angeles Sparks. They’ll have their hands full against Kahleah Copper, a scorer who never met a shot she didn’t like. My Fever vs. Mercury predictions project Copper thriving against a fatigued and thin Indiana defense. Read on for my full WNBA picks, including the Over on Copper’s points prop and a +600 Same-Game Parlay anchored by Kelsey Mitchell’s three-pointers and a favorable Aliyah Boston pairing, designed for this Thursday, July 9.
Copper’s volume has defined her season, ranking second in field goal attempts (16.1 per game), eighth in three-point attempts (6.3), and third in trips to the free-throw line (7.2) per game. Her ability to draw contact and attack the rim will be crucial tonight, as the Fever allow the most free throws to opponents (25.5 per game). In the last eight games, Copper’s 26.8 points per game leads the pack, and she has reached 21+ in six of those contests. Indiana has yielded the fourth-most points per game to opponents, making Copper’s over on 23.5 a feasible target for tonight.
Covers Intel notes that Copper averages just 17.5 points per game on the road, but posts 24.4 points per game at home, second in the league behind only A’ja Wilson. Copper has led in scoring over the past eight games, with Kelsey Mitchell close behind at 25.4 points per game in that stretch. Mitchell also sits second in three-pointers made, averaging 3.8 per game on a 51.7% clip from deep. Phoenix has allowed the league’s second-highest three-point percentage at 36.9%, so targets from beyond the arc are well within reach tonight. Consider wagering toward Copper’s points and Mitchell’s threes with a favorable bend toward the visitors to exploit Phoenix’s defensive gaps.
Natasha Mack’s absence leaves the paint more open for Aliyah Boston, who poured in 23 points and nine rebounds in her last matchup against Phoenix without Mack on the floor. Mack ranks 15th in Defensive Rating and third in Rebound Percentage among players averaging 25-plus minutes per game this season, and her absence creates opportunities for Boston to dominate the paint.
Key props to consider:
– Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 points
– Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 three-pointers
– Aliyah Boston to record a Double-Double
Additionally, Alyssa Thomas has five double-doubles this season, averaging 14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. In three double-doubles this season, she has combined points and rebounds; in two, points and assists have been the double-double components. Over the last three games without Natasha Mack, Thomas’s rebound average has climbed from 6.7 to eight per game, adding another counting-stat angle to this matchup.
Three of Thomas’s five double-doubles have occurred at home, and Indiana’s rest disadvantage coupled with recent defensive lapses give her the edge on this plus-money play. With Mack out, Boston’s opportunity to capitalize on the interior and Mitchell’s perimeter shooting, plus Copper’s scoring volume, creates a compelling setup for this Thursday’s primetime-style WNBA clash.
Bottom line: Copper thrives in the home/authorized environment, Mitchell’s sharpshooting complements the backcourt, and Boston should capitalize on the softened interior. The combination of Copper’s scoring pace, Mitchell’s three-point volume, and Boston’s doubled-up production offers a high-reward path for tonight’s action, especially with the favorable matchup against Phoenix’s defensive schemes.
Best bet: Copper Over 20.5 points, Mitchell Over 2.5 three-pointers, and Boston to record a Double-Double, with Thomas offering additional upside in a value-friendly, plus-money setup.
Stay tuned for more updates and deeper breakdowns as game time approaches, and keep an eye on any late-breaking injury news or lineup changes that could shift the prop market.