​Want to see more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. All eyes will be on the Octagon this Saturday night as Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the cage to take on Max Holloway at UFC 329.
UFC 329 odds at Kalshi currently list Holloway as a -178 favorite, and our MMA specialists have you covered with their best Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway expert picks ahead of the July 11 showdown.
– Writer: Who Will Win
– Favorite Prop: Joe Osborne
– Holloway -178
– Holloway by TKO/KO -104
– Danny Howard
– Holloway -178
– Over 2.5 rounds -105
– Cody Saftic
– Holloway -178
– Over 2.5 rounds -105
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Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -178
Conor McGregor is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights. The last time we saw him, his leg literally snapped in half in a fight he was well on his way to losing against Dustin Poirier. An upset win over Max Holloway would make for a fun story, but after a five-year layoff, expecting an improved McGregor at 37 is unrealistic.
Kalshi probability: 49%
American odds: -104
While McGregor’s power could still be there in the early part of the fight, he won’t be able to match Holloway’s volume, pace, or durability.
The longer the fight goes, the worse McGregor will look, and when he loses, it tends to be in devastating fashion as he’s been finished in all six of his career defeats.
Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -178
I can’t trust that McGregor has much left after a five-year layoff caused by a gruesome injury, coupled with the documented controversies that have only further derailed his career. In his last four fights, McGregor lost three by stoppage after the opening round. Holloway’s relentless pace, elite boxing, and legendary durability should allow him to weather McGregor’s early offense before taking over as the fight progresses.
Kalshi probability: 51%
American odds: -105
McGregor will likely come out aggressively looking for an early finish, but Holloway has only been stopped once in his professional career and has already proven he can survive McGregor’s power. Considering Holloway’s durability and McGregor’s tendency to fade after a fast start, this fight should extend beyond the midway point before Holloway takes control.
Kalshi probability: 64%
American odds: -105
Conor hasn’t fought in five years since breaking his ankle in gruesome fashion, and Holloway has been consistently mixing it up with the best fighters on the planet during that same stretch.
A note on search optimization: this content is structured to deliver comprehensive previews, odds breakdowns, and expert insights for fans seeking a deep dive into UFC 329, with a focus on Holloway’s likely path to victory and McGregor’s chances given his recent ring absence and the sustained pace of his opponent.