​Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here. Belgium knocked the United States out of the 2026 World Cup, and their reward is a looming encounter with a Spain side that arrived in the tournament as the overwhelming favorites to win it all. Spain are widely expected to advance to the semifinals, and my Spain vs. Belgium predictions explain why they’ll secure progression in a match that should be tighter than many expect. Read on as I break down my top World Cup picks for Friday, July 10.
Pick: Spain to win in regulation -150
Over/Under: Under 2.5 at +105
This game pits two teams strong in different areas against each other. Spain aims to dominate possession, win the ball back quickly, and control the tempo, while Belgium often cedes the initiative to their opponents and looks to strike on the break. Belgium ranks fifth in total direct attacks, yet none of those attempts have converted into goals. That lack of cutting edge is why I’m not worried about them hurting Spain in a direct, goal-scoring sense.
Belgium relies on a high-press approach, ranking eighth in PPDA (10.6) and 10th in high turnovers (8.2) per match. They’ve used those pressures to generate scoring opportunities, averaging three shots on target and 0.80 goals per match from high turnovers. When those moments don’t materialize, Belgium’s attacking output wanes. They’ve attempted a high volume of shots per game, but their conversion rate sits in the lower half of the tournament, indicating trouble converting chances.
Spain’s defense has been the standout unit so far, with only five shots on target allowed from 29 total attempts. Their midfield is also exceptionally resistant to pressure, with Rodri and Pedri controlling play through the middle. When opponents manage to break through Belgium’s press, they’ve tended to find some success, yet Belgium has conceded six goals and kept only one clean sheet despite allowing only three shots on target per game.
The injury absence of Amadou Onana weakens Belgium’s midfield and will force them to adopt a more cautious approach. Spain’s superior talent level and relentless pressing should eventually produce a goal, leading to a victory in regulation. This pick is playable to -170.
COVERS INTEL: How press-resistant are Rodri and Pedri? They’ve been successfully tackled just 11 times despite totaling 1,028 touches combined.
Spain vs. Belgium Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 at +105. I’m not just predicting a Spain win; I’m also anticipating continued clean sheet resilience. Belgium managed four goals against the United States, but two of those came from lapses in defense, and another arose from an unfortunate sequence at the back. Spain won’t gift them those chances, and they’re unlikely to allow many, if any, high-quality opportunities. La Roja didn’t concede a shot on target in the first 75 minutes of their first four matches, and while Portugal did get two shots on target in the opening stretch against them, Spain smothered the rest of the game. Both teams excel at different aspects, but Spain’s defensive discipline and control should keep this one under 2.5 goals.