​Oddsmakers are currently placing Conor McGregor at about a 35 percent chance to defeat Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event on Saturday, July 11. That figure is bound to ruffle more than a few feathers, particularly among McGregor’s most ardent supporters. While a five-year layoff doesn’t rule out a comeback, it does tilt the odds against victory. For McGregor backers, the comparison that often comes to mind is Sugar Ray Leonard’s three-year break from boxing before his 1987 return against Marvin Hagler, a shock upset that stunned the sport. Yet Leonard was 30 at the time; McGregor is 37, which adds a different layer of challenge to this bout.
Another factor is McGregor’s apparent bulk. Many believe the muscle gained for this fight is the reason he’s competing at 170 pounds. In the past, the leaner McGregor captured titles at featherweight and lightweight, after all. He has also fought at welterweight, most notably in 2016 against Nate Diaz and again in 2020 against Donald Cerrone. Notably, his knockout win over Cerrone in the first round stands out, but it seems unlikely he’ll repeat such a quick finish against Holloway. The deeper into the fight McGregor goes, the more likely his added mass could wear him down, potentially leaving him susceptible to Holloway’s cumulative striking power.
The event is set for Saturday, July 11, with the main card at 9 p.m. ET, prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET, and early prelims at 5 p.m. ET. Viewers can stream the card on Paramount+. The bout is generating a wide range of opinions. For instance, Tom Aspinall of MMA Junkie believes power is McGregor’s wild card: one clean shot could extinguish Holloway, predicting a first-round KO for McGregor. On the other hand, Trent Reinsmith of Forbes argues that Holloway, even as he ages and with a chin that has shown some vulnerabilities, is more likely to win this fight in most scenarios. Matthew Petela of Combat Press offers a different forecast, suggesting McGregor will miss with repeated wide shots early, burn his gas tank, and allow Holloway to take over with sustained combinations that have historically defined Holloway’s career.
If you’re looking at the betting market, DraftKings currently lists Holloway as the favorite at -225 with McGregor at +185 in a welterweight clash, along with several other matchups on the card. Among those other bouts, Benoit Saint Denis is favored at -142 against Paddy Pimblett, and Cory Sandhagen is also at -142 against Mario Bautista, with both fights adding intrigue to the event’s overall betting landscape. In the flyweight division, Lone’er Kavanagh is a +180 underdog against Brandon Royval, while Terrance McKinney sits at -142 against King Green. In the light heavyweight pairing, Robert Whittaker is at -135 versus Nikita Krylov, and for heavyweight action, Gable Steveson is a heavy favorite at -2800 against Elisha Ellison, a fight that will attract attention for different reasons. The bantamweight card also features Adrian Yanez at -410 against Cody Garbrandt, a notable bout for fans of both fighters. For the featherweight tilt, Luke Riley is at -278 against Kai Kamaka III, and the women’s bantamweight/featherweight showcase includes Wang Cong at -110 against Tracy Cortez at the same price.
In sum, the Holloway-McGregor clash is shaping up to be a fascinating test of experience versus range, speed versus power, and a veteran’s composure against a relentless, high-volume attacker. The health of McGregor’s conditioning at 170 pounds, Holloway’s durability, and the ability of either fighter to impose their game plan will determine the outcome. Whether you see it as a once-in-a-career comeback story or a testament to Holloway’s enduring pressure, UFC 329 promises a wide range of outcomes and plenty of drama for fans and bettors alike.