​The biggest unknown for the Atlanta Falcons as they head into the 2026 season is who will be under center in Week 1. They’ll open on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team long heralded for its pass rush and ability to disrupt quarterbacks. With a season that could hinge on that quarterback decision, it would be prudent for Atlanta to settle on its QB1 well before September 13, but at this moment there’s no official indication of which direction the organization is leaning.
Thus, analysis from the most well-connected reporters surrounding the team becomes essential. Among them is Josh Kendall of The Athletic, who recently tackled a mailbag question about who he expects to start Week 1. Kendall starts with a candid admission: he truly doesn’t know, and nor does anyone else at this point. He stresses that this is a genuine competition. However, if forced to pick right now, he leans toward Tua Tagovailoa, basing his choice on Tagovailoa’s health and his career-long accuracy, which Kendall believes could give him an edge over Michael Penix.
“I sincerely don’t know, and I don’t think anybody does at the moment. This is a legitimate competition. With that caveat out of the way, if you’re making me pick right now, I’m picking Tagovailoa,” Kendall wrote. He notes that Stefanski has consistently valued accuracy, and Tagovailoa has demonstrated superior accuracy over the course of his career. Health remains a major factor as well; it’s unclear whether Penix will be cleared for full activity at the start of training camp, and every missed rep could have a significant cost.
Kendall’s reasoning dovetails with observed offseason practice trends: TagovailoaHas taken every meaningful rep in 11-on-11 drills so far, which, in Kendall’s view, should translate to better chemistry with Atlanta’s pass catchers at this stage of the offseason compared to Penix. If the Falcons ultimately choose Penix over Tagovailoa, Kendall cautions that the decision could come down to more than just arm strength. Tagovailoa has logged a full slate of 11-on-11 work, while Penix can undoubtedly drive the ball with power and reach downfield with more zip. Yet Penix will need to show that the heat on some of his passes can be tamed with improved touch, a refinement that could be necessary to operate effectively in a pro-style system.
In Kendall’s view, the scenario where Tagovailoa loses the competition to Penix would likely hinge on Penix’s physical tools giving him an edge that Tagovailoa does not currently possess, particularly in arm strength and the ability to push the ball downfield. But, as of now, Tagovailoa’s current rep count and demonstrated accuracy give him the early edge in the speculative race for Week 1.
This discussion, originally published on Falcons Wire under the headline Falcons insider predicts starting QB for Week 1 vs. Steelers, remains an attempt to forecast a decision that could shape Atlanta’s offense for the season. The broader takeaway is that the Falcons face a high-stakes, high-visibility quarterback competition, with Week 1 against a renowned pass-rushing opponent serving as a critical early stress test. The choice made in the coming weeks will have lasting implications for offensive chemistry, game planning, and the team’s trajectory as they approach the fall.