​Several early-season sluggers have ripped the leather off baseballs in the opening weeks of 2026, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not among them. The Toronto Blue Jays’ star has endured a troubling power drought, tallying only five home runs this season. His .351 slugging percentage and .089 isolated power (ISO) both sit at the bottom among the 30 qualified first basemen, underscoring how far he has fallen from the elite standards he’s set in past seasons.
Despite these struggles, Guerrero Jr. still earned a spot as the starter on his sixth consecutive All-Star Game, as fans voted him into the midseason showcase. Yet there has been a less flattering acknowledgment before the break: The Athletic’s Jayson Stark pegged Guerrero as the American League’s “Least Valuable Player” for the first half. He faced stiff competition in Cal Raleigh, who entered the season with a big bat but was hitting just .168 after a 60-home-run breakout year.
Stark highlighted that the Blue Jays rank 24th in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from their first basemen, and Guerrero has yet to connect for a home run at home in 2026. The situation is further complicated by Guerrero’s contract situation: the franchise cornerstone is entering the first season of a monumental 14-year, $500 million deal. Stark described Guerrero’s power drought as more than just surprising; he noted that it is “crushing” a Blue Jays lineup that entered the season with World Series aspirations and a lineup that badly needed Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s usual pop and production.
As the All-Star break approached, Guerrero announced he would sit out the Midsummer Classic to recover from a lingering lower-back issue. His performance since June began has been uncharacteristically pale, slashing only .197, a dip that has the Blue Jays urgently hoping he can rediscover his MVP-level form in the second half. Without a resurgent Guerrero, Toronto faces an uphill climb in a hotly contested American League and a race toward another postseason berth.
With the season resuming, all eyes will be on Guerrero’s ability to rekindle the power that once defined his game and to provide the kind of run-producing impact his team sorely needs. If he can reconnect with his old form, the Blue Jays could still press for a deep playoff run; if not, the franchise may have to look to the rest of the roster to salvage a campaign that began with high expectations and a lot of optimism for Vlad’s influence at the plate.