​Less than 24 hours after Steph Curry acknowledged that he has spoken with LeBron James, the Golden State Warriors’ prospects of signing the superstar appear to be sliding in the wrong direction. The latest betting odds show a dramatic shift in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers, with Polymarket assigning the Cavaliers a 62% probability of landing James, up 21 percentage points. In contrast, the Warriors’ chances have fallen to 11%, a drop of 15 percentage points. Golden State now trails the Cavaliers and the Miami Heat, who sit at 16% in the odds.
The chatter follows a notable claim from The Ringer’s Bill Simmons, who described James joining the Cavaliers as a “done deal.” Simmons contended that the Warriors were being leveraged to extract a more favorable deal from Cleveland, suggesting that the leverage was the real outcome of the dynamic. “The thing that happened to poor Golden State is, I think they thought they were getting LeBron and potentially [Anthony Davis] and now, it’s pretty clear they were being used by leverage, as leverage, as LeBron goes back to Cleveland,” Simmons said on his July 9, 2026 podcast, via HoopsHype. “The Cleveland thing is done.”
ESPN’s Anthony Slater added that James and Curry have had conversations during free agency. He also noted that James was seen golfing in Puerto Rico with Draymond Green. “Curry and James have talked in the last week, league sources confirmed, mostly through text message,” Slater reported in a July 9, 2026 story titled, “Steph Curry acknowledges appeal of playing with LeBron James.” “Longtime Curry teammate Draymond Green is vacationing with James in Puerto Rico and was spotted on the golf course with him Thursday afternoon.”
The Warriors maintain only a slim optimism about their ability to persuade James to join the team. Golden State has publicly chalked up its hope to Wilson-like leverage: James’ relationship with Curry and Green, paired with the team’s veteran-friendly environment and the continued leadership of coach Steve Kerr, may still tilt the scales in their favor, even if the probability remains low. Slater pointed out that the Cavaliers have emerged as the more formidable obstacle, acknowledged as a suitor that would be hard to outmaneuver.
From Golden State’s perspective, the favorable factors include the established camaraderie among James, Curry, and Green, plus the familiar, relaxed atmosphere cultivated by Kerr, who previously coached both James and Curry during the 2024 Olympics. The dynamic offers a potential, if unlikely, path to pairing James with a team that shares a long history of on-court success and off-court chemistry. Still, the early-free-agency window has produced little evidence that the Warriors can mount the kind of late push needed to alter the prevailing odds.
Time will tell whether Golden State can close any ground in the pursuit of James. Curry has acknowledged that the idea of teaming up with James feels “a little premature right now.” He added, “Up until probably two, three years ago, that was like a pipe-dream question or even a thought. But that’s part of the allure. Him going into his 24th season, me going into my 18th, the battles we’ve had, that would be such a unique story…” While that hypothetical would certainly attract attention, the current landscape remains heavily tilted toward Cleveland, with the Cavaliers’ edge measured not just in sentiment but in odds and momentum. The saga continues, and the clock and the numbers will keep shifting as teams navigate the rest of free agency.