​I spend a lot of the offseason looking backward at the previous season, but as summer turns toward fall, my thoughts start drifting toward the next one. What lessons did we take from last season that can offer clues for this season, both for the Green Bay Packers and for the league as a whole? I’ve had all these ideas swirling in my head about the Packers’ offense, so I decided to put them into words. It’s like shouting into the void, except I’m hoping there’s a bit of resonance for you too. I’m not sure how real some of these “clues” are, or whether I’ve simply let my mind wander, but it’s a fun thought experiment, and maybe it’ll be tolerable to read.
Let’s lead with the big trend. If you listen to any smart Xs & Os discussion or read any analytical piece about 2025 NFL offenses, you’re bound to hear the same headline: the rise of 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends, 2 wide receivers) and 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR). According to SumerSports data, 12-personnel usage has climbed each of the last four years. It’s a small, steady climb—year after year, just a few percentage points—but the league has moved from about 17.3% usage in 2022 to around 22.3% in 2025, a roughly five-point increase. For 13 personnel, there was a dip in 2024, but the long arc still goes from roughly 4% in 2022 to about 5.4% in 2025. Put together, that’s a roughly 6.3 percentage-point rise over four years.
The big question is whether this trend will keep pushing upward or if it’s a temporary blip. Is this a lasting shift in how offensive football is being conceptualized, or simply a momentary craze? The draft could offer a potential signal about how teams view this. In the 2nd round through the end of the 3rd round, eight tight ends were selected. A few of those players fit the mold of a big-bodied target who can also contribute in the passing game—think players like Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers or Ohio State’s Max Klare—but many profiles skew toward the blocking-and-pin-and-dish variety, capable of contributing in the run game and offering some receiving upside. Some of these blocking-tight ends found homes with teams already rolling multiple tight ends onto the field, teams that front-runners in offensive thinking—examples often cited include the Rams, the Bears, and the Jaguars.
If you examine the Packers’ draft class, you won’t find a single tight end. In fact, there’s not a single additional offensive player taken beyond a potential development path. And while I’m a fan of Jager Burton (a fellow Kentucky alum, so Go Cats), I don’t expect him to slot in as a TE contributor for Green Bay any time soon. This leads to a practical question: does the Packers’ current tight end room have what it takes to lean into 12- and 13-personnel looks more in 2026?
Tucker Kraft is the name you’ll hear as the return-from-injury beacon this year. If his own statements are to be believed (and, full disclosure, I’m aware they come with the caveat of optimism and ambition from a player’s perspective), Kraft should be full-go by Week 1. He’s the kind of player who drew strong expectations before his season-ending injury, one who seemed on track to be among the elite at his position. He was trending toward a high level of TE efficiency with pass-game impact and ran a role that could have unlocked more two-TE or multiple-TE looks if he had stayed healthy. Kraft’s potential impact isn’t just measurable in his catches or yards; it’s about how his presence could enable more versatile personnel grouping for Green Bay, especially when you layer in a 12- or 13-personnel framework that stresses mismatches and spacing.
The broader question remains, though: can Green Bay lean into a heavier TE usage in 2026? The answer hinges on several moving parts: Kraft’s health and on-field readiness, the development and reliability of the other tight ends in the room, and the ability of the Packers’ offense to repurpose formations to create advantageous looks. If Kraft is truly ready to contribute as a Week 1 starter or near-starter, and if the other TEs can chip in as blockers who can still threaten the seam or the flats, Green Bay could reasonably explore more 12- and 13-personnel looks. That would, in turn, align with the league-wide trend toward more multiple-TE sets, potentially increasing efficiency by exploiting favorable matchups and creating new layers of route concepts and run-game variety.
Beyond Kraft, the macro lesson is clear: offenses are increasingly valuing versatility and hand-in-hand production from tight ends. The question for the Packers is whether their personnel makeup—especially at tight end—can support a front end that doesn’t just survive but thrives in those heavier formations. If Kraft and the supporting cast can deliver for both the pass game and the run game, Green Bay could capitalize on a trend that’s gaining momentum across the league. It’s a speculative, but intriguing, direction for the 2026 offense, one that invites a re-imagining of how to balance personnel packages, play design, and in-game adaptability for the Packers and perhaps for the league at large.