​Justin Gaethje doesn’t give Paddy Pimblett much of a chance if he were to face Ilia Topuria. At UFC 324, Gaethje (28-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC) claimed the interim lightweight title by unanimous decision over Pimblett, then cemented his status by unifying the belt after a dominant display against Topuria, which ended with a Round 4 doctor’s stoppage TKO at UFC Freedom 250. Pimblett (23-4 MMA, 7-1 UFC) and Topuria (17-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC) have long seemed destined to collide, but if they finally meet, who would emerge victorious?
“Iliа is one of the best in the world,” Gaethje said on UFC on Paramount+. “He is one of the most dangerous fighters out there, and he’s far more dangerous than Paddy Pimblett. Yet Paddy is goofy. Not goofy in a negative sense, but his quirky style is an asset. He’s really hard to hit, he’s tall, and he moves at unusual angles and tempos. That unpredictability can throw opponents off, which is part of why he has had success. You see it in players like Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis as well—their timing is unconventional, and that kind of funky style is tough to figure out. Ilia is unquestionably more dangerous, and the sport of fighting is unpredictable, but in my view, about 97 out of 100 times, Ilia would beat him up.”
Pimblett is set to try to rebound from the loss to Gaethje when he faces Benoit Saint Denis (17-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) in Saturday’s UFC 329 co-main event at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, streaming on Paramount+. Pimblett will be looking to reset his momentum after the high-profile setback, aiming to demonstrate that he remains a dangerous threat in the lightweight division. The press around his upcoming bout continues to reflect the broader conversation about whether Pimblett can climb back into the elite tier or if Topuria represents a different spectrum of danger for him.
Gaethje’s assessment underscores a recurring theme in discussions about Pimblett and Topuria: Topuria’s skill set, power, and technique present a level of threat that Pimblett has yet to consistently confront at the highest stakes, while Pimblett’s own unique style complicates scouting reports for many opponents. If these two futures ever collide, the consensus among some observers—echoed by Gaethje’s candid analysis—suggests that Topuria’s all-around package could present a more formidable challenge than Pimblett has typically faced, though anything can happen when the cage doors close.
This perspective has only added fuel to the ongoing debate about Pimblett’s ceiling and whether his charisma and momentum can translate into sustained success against the sport’s most dangerous competitors. As Pimblett prepares to take on Saint Denis, the outcome could either reinforce Gaethje’s view or, conversely, reveal new dimensions to Pimblett’s skill set that could alter perceptions about how he would fare against Topuria in a theoretical matchup. The MMA community will be watching closely as the Las Vegas event unfolds, with many fans and pundits weighing in on who ultimately holds the upper hand in a potential Pimblett-Topuria showdown.