​What do people say about assuming things? Jumping to conclusions is a risky game. We’ve all done it, and we’ll do it again, but declaring anything to be definitively one thing or another has burned us all before. Sometimes that’s just how things go. When everything aligns, we feel like geniuses. We convinced ourselves we knew it all along, that no one could have foreseen what we did. But when we’re wrong, that’s rarely a pleasant feeling. This piece leans toward the latter.
What would you say is an assumption about the Dallas Cowboys that is likely to be wrong? I know this question sounds strange, but it’s worth considering if we want to map out a practical range of possible outcomes. My two cents: regression to the mean is a very real phenomenon. We tend to interpret it in ways that benefit us, so it’s easy to assume the Cowboys’ defense will bounce back simply because defenses often do rebound. Yet that bounce can work both ways, and I’d simply caution against assuming the Cowboys’ offense will be stellar in 2026 just because it was in 2025. Football teams aren’t like old VHS tapes that stay paused at the moment you eject them from the player. Every component of the team has to restart.
What makes this particular assumption less likely to blow up in our faces is the strong recent track record of the Cowboys’ offense. Dak Prescott finished second in MVP voting in 2023, and that year also featured what was arguably CeeDee Lamb’s breakout season with the team. The fact that head coach and offensive play-caller Brian Schottenheimer was part of the organization then provides another common link in that narrative. The Cowboys’ offense has been notably productive for much of Dak Prescott’s era. From 2018, following the Amari Cooper trade, up through today, the offense has generally been “good enough.” There have been gaps and disappointments, but the overall trajectory has been more solid than not.
So perhaps that particular assumption—that the offense will automatically repeat or exceed its 2025 performance in 2026—will hold up, or perhaps it won’t. There may be an alternative assumption that feels more likely to be incorrect, one that’s worth scrutinizing. What do you think that other assumption might be?
From an SEO perspective, you’ll want to keep the focus on common misperceptions about the Dallas Cowboys, the volatility of football outcomes, and the concept of regression to the mean, while weaving in historical context (Dak Prescott’s MVP discussion, CeeDee Lamb’s 2023 peak, Brian Schottenheimer’s involvement) to anchor the argument. The aim is to present a thoughtful, long-form reflection—approximately 500 words or more—that explores a plausible but risky assumption about the Cowboys’ offense and contrasts it with past performance, thereby inviting readers to consider a realistic range of futures rather than certainty.