​ESPN has released the initial Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2026 college football season, and Ohio State sits at No. 1 before any games are played. But what exactly is the FPI? ESPN describes it as a measure of team strength designed to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. The FPI represents how far above or below average a team is, and projected results come from 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the season that incorporate FPI values, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Put simply, it is an analytics-driven model that weighs a wide range of data points to forecast how a team will perform in the future.
In this particular release, Ohio State is rated at 28.7, narrowly ahead of the No. 2 team, the Texas Longhorns, who are at 26.9. While the FPI is impressive in highlighting the Buckeyes’ strength on paper, it’s important to remember that the metric isn’t a guarantee of on-field success. Past years have shown that the FPI can be favorable to Ohio State, yet national championships and playoff appearances don’t always follow the rankings or the predicted outcomes. The 2026 schedule for Ohio State is widely regarded as one of the toughest in recent memory, which could complicate the journey from preseason favorability to a championship run.
The FPI’s projections for Ohio State include an expected win/loss record of 10.2–2.4, a 9.2% chance of finishing unbeaten, and a 99.4% chance of winning at least six games. The model also assigns the Buckeyes a conference-best 38.8% probability of winning the Big Ten, and a 75.7% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. If they reach the playoff, the odds of advancing to the national championship stand at 28.2%, with a 17.1% likelihood of securing the national title. It’s worth noting that these numbers come with all standard disclaimers and asterisks that accompany any predictive model, as the future remains uncertain and subject to many evolving variables.
Rounding out the top ten in the FPI behind Ohio State and Texas are Notre Dame at 25.9, Oregon at 25.3, Georgia at 24.8, Indiana at 23.1, Miami (FL) at 21.8, Alabama at 20.1, LSU at 20.0, and Texas Tech at 20.0. Beyond that top tier, the rest of the top 25 continues with additional programs featured in the rankings as the season approaches.
As is typical with the FPI, the rankings are dynamic and will change as results come in and new data becomes available. The publication notes that updates will follow throughout the season to reflect ongoing developments. For those who follow FPI, keeping an eye on these shifts provides a snapshot of how analysts’ projections evolve with each game played.
For ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion, you can follow Buckeyes Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like their page on Facebook. This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire under the title ESPN releases initial college football FPI: Where is Ohio State? As more results come in, expect further updates to the FPI rankings and the Buckeyes’ projected path.