​Dallas — Yes, the World Cup is rigged. Relax, it’s not what some of you imagine. The World Cup is “rigged” in the same way as the NCAA basketball tournaments and tennis majors, with brackets arranged so that the strongest teams are pushed toward semifinals or finals rather than colliding early. And, true to form, FIFA’s luck has aligned with that idea. The World Cup is so chalky it could pass for a sidewalk in front of a child’s house.
For the first time since FIFA began ranking teams in 1994, the top four teams at the start of the tournament have reached the semifinals. No. 2 Spain faces third-ranked France on Tuesday, July 14, in Dallas, while No. 1 Argentina meets No. 4 England on Wednesday, July 15. It’s also the first time since 1990 that all four semifinalists are former World Cup champions. “If we look at the four remaining teams, all of them could be champions,” Switzerland coach Murat Yakin said after Argentina clinched a hard-fought 3-1 win on Saturday, July 11.
That outcome was, in a way, the point. Upsets in the World Cup, much like those in the NCAA Tournament, are a source of thrilling drama in the early rounds. Who doesn’t enjoy watching Duke topple by Mercer in the first round of the men’s tournament? Okay, that wasn’t the best example. Pretty much everyone enjoys seeing Duke fall to anyone, in any round. The idea is clear, though: we cheer for the UMBCs and the High Points and the Furmans and the FDUs because they spark chaos and keep underdogs dreaming big, keeping faith alive. It’s why we jumped aboard the Cape Verde and Congo bandwagons at this World Cup as well.
But as the competition narrows to the semifinals and final, a yearning for order takes over. We want the best teams and the star players, because odds are that’s what will deliver the most compelling games. We crave chalk. Would you rather watch Kylian Mbappé and Lamine Yamal go head-to-head again, or see one of them dominate a rival you only recently learned existed? Do you want to know if Lionel Messi and Argentina still have a final chance to challenge Jude Bellingham and England? Be honest.
“We’re the only team that has managed to beat (France) twice. A great team is going to face another great team,” Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said after his side defeated Belgium to join Les Bleus in the semifinals. Havoc is enjoyable for a spell, but at a certain point we want the world’s best to show their quality on the biggest stages.
FIFA, to its credit, has recognized this dynamic. With the expanded knockout format, the organization could alter the rules to delay certain matchups for broader appeal or “SEO,” so to speak. Still, the underlying pattern endures: the thrill of upsets early, followed by a preference for the matchup that promises the most definitive showcase of talent when it counts the most.