​The one certainty that seems to emerge for LeBron James is that he does not appear to be planning a return to the Los Angeles Lakers. Beyond that, James has offered little clarity about his NBA future as free agency unfolds. Yet the most recent betting odds show a notable shift regarding which team has the best chance to land him. In recent days, the Cleveland Cavaliers had been the favorite, but the Golden State Warriors have surged in the odds over the past 24 hours, now sitting at a 21% probability to sign James, according to Kalshi’s latest NBA odds. That figure ties Golden State with the Miami Heat for the second-best chances, while the Cavaliers maintain a commanding 48% likelihood of reuniting with James.
Over the past week, the Warriors’ odds have bounced as low as 13.6%, illustrating how fluid these projections can be. Whether these fluctuations in NBA odds will translate into James’s actual choice remains to be seen. Is James granting the Warriors a closer look amid chatter about conversations with Steph Curry and Draymond Green? It’s a development worth watching, particularly since Golden State is a Western Conference rival of the Lakers.
Now, let’s unpack the latest Lakers and Warriors rumors. For neutral Lakers supporters, the most favorable outcome would be for James to sign with an Eastern Conference team such as the Heat or Cavaliers. A move to the Warriors would pose a greater threat to Los Angeles.
Curry has indicated that he has been in contact with James recently and has shared his approach to recruiting him to join the Warriors. In a July 9 media session with ESPN’s Anthony Slater, Curry described his pitch: “The pitch is: Do you want to play good basketball and be around people that know how to play the game? Hopefully raise our floor and our competitiveness this year. There’s good golf in the Bay. We’re an organization that’s been there. He knows that. That’s really self-explanatory. It’s a matter of where he sees himself fitting. At the end of the day, that’s up to him.”
Regarding why James quickly dropped the Lakers from consideration, ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne has noted that James sensed he was no longer a priority for a franchise that pivoted toward Luka Dončić as its face. Shelburne reported that James might have been willing to accept a smaller salary—potentially a cut from the $52.6 million he earned the prior season—if the Lakers had explained how they intended to reallocate the money. However, they never laid out such a plan, and James did not make himself available for a meeting. As Shelburne wrote in her July 6 piece, “Inside the sterile dissolution of the LeBron-Lakers marriage,” James had long been a priority in his career, but when he perceived he was no longer one, he moved on.