A Statcast preview of tonight’s Home Run Derby

By admin — In News — July 13, 2026

   ​At its core, the Home Run Derby is a vibes event. Eight large men try to hit a baseball extremely far, we “ooooh and ahhhh” at the majestic dingers. You do not need Statcast to enjoy it. That said, the past few years there has been an alternative Statcast broadcast to focus on bat speed, launch angle, barrel rates and so much more. So, I decided to fill the void and create a Statcast preview of tonight’s long ball festivities in Philadelphia.Cubs fans in particular have some old friends to cheer for tonight. Kyle Schwarber will look to avenge his 2018 Home Run Derby appearance when Bryce Harper (also in tonight’s field) just edged him out on some, shall we say questionable batting practice pitches given the timing rules. Schwarber already has an MLB leading 32 home runs on the 2026 campaign and this will be his third Home Run Derby appearance. He’ll be up against another 2016 Cubs hero, Willson Contreras. Contreras is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career in Boston slashing .285/.379/.542 with 20 home runs so far in the 2026 campaign.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut today I want to dig a little deeper than hometown legends and slash lines to see who has the edge in a stacked Derby field that will see Schwarber and Contreras joined by the Rays Junior Caminero (second appearance), Harper (third appearance), the Cardinals Jordan Walker (first appearance), the White Sox’ Munetaka Murakami (first appearance), the Royals Jac Caglianone (first appearance) and the Yankees Ben Rice (first appearance). It does seem worth caveating that Murakami stands out among the first-timers with 246 career home runs in NPB before joining the White Sox this season. But that’s besides the point, there will be bombs in Philadelphia tonight and Statcast can tell us a bit about who has the edge in different categories.Junior Caminero owns the field’s top average bat speed, with Jordan Walker sitting right behind him. You can see how the field stacks up in terms of average bat speed below:PlayerCompetitve Swings% Competitive SwingsRaw Contact #Avg Bat SpeedMLB Bat Speed Rank% Fast Swing% Squared Up Contact% Squared Up Swing% Blast Contact% Blast SwingCaminero, Junior59491.10%46879.9188.22%30.98%24.41%25.64%20.20%Walker, Jordan65290.30%47079.2286.04%30.21%21.78%23.19%16.72%Caglianone, Jac60790.33%43377.3775.12%30.02%21.42%23.33%16.64%Schwarber, Kyle69790.17%48377.1975.61%24.22%16.79%17.18%11.91%Contreras, Willson61590.31%44677.01070.89%26.23%19.02%17.26%12.52%Murakami, Munetaka42190.15%24775.22655.34%33.60%19.71%23.48%13.78%Harper, Bryce72590.29%51274.35447.86%30.27%21.38%17.19%12.14%Rice, Ben59590.56%47072.69124.03%36.60%28.91%19.15%15.13%Walker and Caminero are both in the 100th-percentile bat-speed leaguewide. Caglianone is right behind them at the 97th percentile with Schwarber and Contreras both in the 96th percentile. Bat speed isn’t everything, but in a competition aimed at hitting home runs, having a quick swing can certain  

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