​On Saturday, I was optimistic about who the Diamondbacks drafted in the first round: Ryder Helfrick and Blake Bryant.“Helfrick is the best defensive catcher in the class… If they stick, the [batting] improvements [better swing decisions and moved away from the plate] this year give him a chance to be an All-Star.” — Keith LawAdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement“Bryant really looks the part of a future No. 2 starter,…” — Keith LawI wondered about two questions.What are the chances they will reach the Majors?What are the chances they will make a positive impact?Let’s look at all the first-round picks by the Diamondbacks after Mike Hazen was the GM.In recent years, for all the teams, in general about 81% of first-round draftees reached the Majors (for at least one game) per JJ Cooper’s Baseball America article.Looking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 7 of 10 draftees (70%) made it to the Majors within 3 seasons of being drafted (ignoring the unsigned Matt McLain).  Also, an eighth draftee (Blake Walston) made it in 5 seasons.  70% is a little below average, but seemed like an acceptable result.  AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe position player chances were higher than pitcher chances (83% vs 50%).  Given the known problem with pitcher development, which is being addressed, that difference seems to make sense.In each of the next three seasons, two first-round picks by the Diamondbacks will reach their third season, and they will likely significantly impact the percentages that reached the Majors.My view is that accumulating at least one Baseball-Reference Win-Above-Replacement (bWAR) will accomplish a positive impact.  Although that view is possibly a low bar, and although a replacement level player can make a small impact, that is where I drew a demarcation line.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementLooking at the players drafted in the first round after Mike Hazen became GM, 3 of 10 draftees made a positive impact.   They were Corbin Carroll, Drey Jameson, and Bryce Jarvis.  I was surprised that 2 of the 3 were pitchers!   Perhaps the story is more complex than it appeared!Drafting Corbin Carroll was like winning a jackpot.  So far, he has earned 18.9 bWAR, making his impact far above all the other Diamondbacks first-round draftees.  In addition, his performance earned the Diamondbacks an extra draft pick, which was used to draft Ryan Waldschmidt.In a 3-step process, I estimated the future impact of each draftee. Opinions on future impact differ widely.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementEstimated each player’s future bWAR for the Diamondbacks.Subtracted bWAR equivalent to their salary divided by $9 million per bWAR.Rounded the result to acknowledge the huge uncertainty in the estimate.Three of the seven first-round draftees who did not make an impact, could make an impact in the future. They were Ryan Waldschmidt,  Jordan Lawlar, and Tommy Troy. IF that opti