We’ve seen a few things occur as a result of the current, highly-diluted playoff format. One, which Alex Anthopoulos alluded to in remarks aired on a recent broadcast, was that the low barrier for entry (and though he didn’t say it, the implicit idea that said low barrier for entry has resulted in a lot of same-y, so-so rosters) has made teams hesitant to sell, in case they start playing well in July. The corollary to that, then, is that a team with a poor July can suddenly turn into a seller, even if that wasn’t the plan a few weeks ago.The AL and NL are very different as we stand here at the All-Star Break. The AL has a bunch of teams with decent-to-good rosters not playing well, so the selling calculus is complicated by the fact that many of those teams probably expect to do much better over the remaining 70-odd games of the season. The NL has kind of the opposite issue, with less-than-complete rosters reeling off bunches of wins, which means less successful teams have a lot more leapfrogging to do.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWith that said, here are six teams I’m thinking about:The Orioles, Blue Jays, and especially the Tigers all seem like they might not sell because of their expectations going forward. If you figure the last AL Wild Card spot may truly be a .500 team, and these three teams with all their banked losses figure to win 78-79 games, then… maybe it’s worth it to try. The Tigers, in particular, project to have the fifth-best roster going forward, so it would be kinda weird to see that team sell. I don’t know if any of these teams will sell, but I’d mark it as somewhat surprising if they started right now. Of course, if they slide much more in the next couple of weeks, that’ll be a more obvious direction to take, but that’s why I’m asking the question now.In the NL, the Cardinals are in an unexpected place because they have been winning while rebuilding. They’re currently one game out of a playoff spot, and if it came down to just them and the Marlins going forward, maybe they shouldn’t sell, figuring the Marlins’ bottom is at least as likely to drop out as their own. But this Cardinals team was also built around explicitly rebuilding and maybe moving some short-term signings for stuff to improve that rebuild, so…Then you have the Diamondbacks and Padres, who are in a pretty similar position. The division is out of reach, but a Wild Card spot isn’t, and the rosters aren’t bad. The Padres actually seem like they might be more obvious sellers, but AJ Preller is a wild man.Anyway, do you think any of these teams might sell when it comes down to it? Or, will it be another team that seems to be in an okay position right now (the Pirates, for example). Who ya got?
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