​Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.The Golden Boot race has taken another dramatic turn.Lionel Messi is now the favorite at Kalshi after helping Argentina reach Sunday’s World Cup final. Messi and Kylian Mbappé remain level with eight goals, but the Argentine captain has moved ahead with four assists and a chance to add to his tally against Spain.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMbappé will have one final opportunity in the third-place match against England, but Messi now owns the more valuable stage and a clearer path to finishing the tournament on top.Below, you’ll find the latest Golden Boot odds at Kalshi — one of our favorite prediction market apps — along with updated market analysis and my favorite World Cup picks ahead of Sunday’s final between Argentina and Spain.PlayerAmerican OddsLionel Messi63%-170Kylian Mbappe38%+163Percentages courtesy of Kalshi as of 7-16.Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementCategoryPlayerOdds⭐ Best Bet Harry Kane13¢+669ContenderKylian Mbappé16¢+525ContenderErling Haaland7¢+1329ContenderMikel Oyarzabal7¢+1329LongshotLautaro Martínez2¢+4900Picks made on 6-9.This one is pretty straightforward. The deeper you go in the tournament, the more games you play, the more chances you have to score.Pressure aside, there’s no easier route to scoring a goal than a spot kick from 12 yards out. Harry Kane, Lionel Messi, and Erling Haaland are the unquestioned penalty takers for their countries, so that does give them an upper hand.Seventy percent of recent Golden Boot winners have scored half or more of their goals in the group stage. With the World Cup expanding to 48 teams, not every team belongs, and the elite strikers will be eager to pad their stats.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThere’s a lot to like about Harry Kane’s chances of winning the Golden Boot. He’s done it before, capturing the award at the 2018 World Cup with six goals, and enters this tournament in tremendous form after scoring 60 goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich.Kane is England’s captain, primary penalty taker, and a near-lock to play every meaningful minute in close matches. More importantly, he’s one of the purest finishers in world football, capable of turning half-chances into goals.England’s group-stage schedule is another advantage. Matches against Ghana and Panama provide opportunities for Kane to get on the scoresheet early, and a fast start is often the difference in a market where every goal matters. At +669, he offers the best combination of World Cup odds, role, form, and tournament path.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementKylian Mbappé entered as the rightful favorite after winning the Golden Boot in 2022 wi