​The MLB best home run bets limped into the All-Star break with four incorrect home run props in the final two articles. Still, the season’s record sits at 16-57, with three no-bets for players who didn’t start on the day their home run prop was suggested.The record might not appear to be anything special, but it’s rock-solid for long-shot bets. As a result, the season’s profit for MLB best home run bets is $642 for anyone who bet $100 on each of the home run props at the listed odds.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFriday’s MLB slate is stacked, featuring 15 games. There are many home run props to choose from, but two left-handed batters with favorable matchups and homer-friendly park factors have the most appealing home run bets, albeit with chalky odds.Over 0.5 Home Runs (+262) at DraftKings SportsbookYordan Alvarez is one of MLB’s best home run hitters, and he ranks second in home runs this year, with 31. The 29-year-old slugger has hit 23 of his 31 home runs in 310 plate appearances against righties, 16 of them in 200 at home and 12 in 154 against right-handed pitching at home.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAlvarez has jaw-dropping batted-ball data. Among 256 qualified hitters this season, Alvarez is second in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.4%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.6%), 10th in hard-hit rate (53.2%), tied for 20th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), sixth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.9%) and 24th in steepest launch angle (19.8%).Alvarez has the best matchup to hit a home run on Friday’s MLB slate. Dean Kremer’s 3.68 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this year are the most among today’s probable starters. Kremer has permitted nine home runs in four starts, allowing three, one, one and four in those turns. The 30-year-old righty has allowed seven home runs to 62 left-handed batters faced in 2026.Alvarez’s chances of hitting a home run will also get a lift from playing at home. Daikin Park’s 115 park factor for home runs since 2025 is tied for the fifth-highest mark in MLB. Alvarez should make the most of the perfect setup and tap into his immense power for a home run tonight.Mickey Moniak has hit 24 home runs against righties at home since 2025.Getty ImagesOver 0.5 Home Runs (+271) at DraftKings SportsbookAdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMickey Moniak has the platoon advantage at home tonight. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has had both substantial home-and-road splits and lefty-righty splits. Fortunately for him tonight, he’s excelled against righties at home. In 334 plate appearances against righties at home since 2025, Moniak has hit 24 home runs, with a 22.1% line-drive rate, 46.6% fly-ball rate, 20.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 51.8% pull rate.Moniak also has decent batted-ball info. Among 256 qualified batters in 2026, Moniak is tied for 43rd in barrels per plate appe