​Sep 5, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; San Francisco Giants first baseman Rafael Devers (16) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, September 19.MLB Picks, Predictions TodayFollow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102, 0.51u | Bet to -115)Orioles ML (+114, 0.5u | Bet to +101)Cubs ML (-127, 1.27u | Bet to -150)Twins/Angels Under 7.5 (-117, 0.59u | Bet to 7)Brewers @ Orioles PickRobert Gasser has pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last 19.1 innings, but that’s mostly because just one of his five barrels has left the yard during that time.His 14.5 K-BB% is right on his season rate (14.6%), but he has only allowed 15 hard-hit batted balls (25.9%), still producing an xERA (3.98) and xFIP (4.06), much higher than his 3.10 FIP.On the season, Gasser’s 4.30 ERA meshes pretty well with indicators ranging from a 4.12 SIERA to a 4.64 dERA. His 3.67 Bot ERA is an outlier, but a 97 Pitching+ is not. He also exceeds a 40-point wOBA and xwOBA split, favoring RHBs.The good news for Gasser is that it’s a navigable matchup, one even offering plenty of strikeout upside. Pete Alonso (114 wRC+), Coby Mayo (208) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (201) are the only three projected Orioles above a 97 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Take away Gunnar Henderson too and nobody else exceeds a 71 wRC+ or .123 ISO against southpaws.This projected lineup also averages a 31.6 K% vs LHP and 84 wRC+ at home.They have been hot lately though, with four batters exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last month overall.Gasser has struck out LHBs 25.8% of the time and RHBs 20.8% of the time. I’m projecting him to face 21 batters with only Henderson from the left-hand side, but the first 21 in the projected Baltimore order average an even higher strikeout rate against lefties (32.1%).I also wanted to check out Gasser’s home and away strikeout splits because Milwaukee is one of the greatest strikeout-enhancing parks in the league, but he’s struck out more batters on the road (22.7%) than at home (21.4%).Camden will generally boost strikeouts around 1% for RHBs. An early forecast suggests 3% suppression, but then scheduled umpire Alex MacKay enhances strikeouts almost 8%. This is a nice spot for Gasser.When the Orioles do make contact, they’ll be hitting into a projected defense running 24 FRV above average, one o