​DETROIT, MICHIGAN – OCTOBER 8: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions hugs Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers after the game at Ford Field on October 8, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan. The Lions beat the Panthers 42-24. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images) | Getty Images The Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers face off on Sunday night in a litmus test game for both franchises. Though the Panthers are 1-2 and the Lions are 2-1, both teams are very much considered a competitor for their respective divisions, and both are looking for a defining win to silence some of the doubters. The Lions are currently 3.5-point favorites according to FanDuel Sportsbook, but this one could be even closer than that. Let’s break down the matchup in this week’s On Paper statistical breakdown, preview, and prediction of Detroit Lions vs. Carolina PanthersNote: We are throwing away all 2025 data. Everything listed below represents 2026 only, unless otherwise stated.Lions pass offense (12th) vs. Panthers pass defense (16th)Through the first three weeks of the season, I expressed a healthy amount of optimism for the Lions’ passing attack given the incredible consistency they’ve shown over the last three years. They’ve rewarded that trust with one of the most efficient passing attacks in football thus far. Through three weeks, the Lions rank: Third in passer rating (116.1) 10th in yards per attempt (7.4) Sixth in dropback EPA (0.286) Fifth in success rate (53.2%) Behind Jared Goff, this remains a top-10 passing attack that’s on the border of a top-five unit. The one thing they have been missing thus far is explosive plays. Through three games, the Lions have just nine passes of 20 yards or more, ranking 14th in the league. In each of the last four seasons, they’ve finished top-five in that statistical category. But teams are playing deep-shells against them and Detroit hasn’t found a way to pierce that coverage. Goff has just three passing attempts with 20 or more air yards (one completion), which is tied with Sam Darnold for the least in the NFL. The good news is that pass protection has been stellar so far for Detroit. Goff has faced a pressure rate of 32.2% (seventh lowest), has a sack rate of 6.0% (15th), while the offense line ranks second in pass-block win rate (60%), but 20th in PFF pass blocking grade.It’s hard to get a firm grasp on the Panthers’ pass defense. In Week 1, the Bears’ offense was just all over them, but they held their next two opponents relatively in check—although neither are the most explosive passing attacks in football. Through three weeks, the stats are inconclusive:Sixth in passer rating allowed (79.0)Sixth in yards per attempt (6.1)11th in dropback EPA (0.004)18th in success rate (46.8%)The first two data points are promising, but the last two may fall closer to reality given that the Panthers have faced two mediocre-at-best passing offenses—and have mostly seen the damage done on the ground .The main talking p