​The return of Conor McGregor for a rematch with Max Holloway is poised to dominate attention this week at UFC 329 in Las Vegas. Yet the rest of the card—featuring several former champions and title contenders—deserves a close look as well. Here are some key spots where there may be opportunities to take advantage of the betting lines and matchup dynamics. Full disclosure: a five-year layoff prevents me from running the standard models on any Conor McGregor matchup. I require at least three appearances within the trailing five years, since data older than that isn’t trusted. Nevertheless, we still have the usual performance metrics to analyze, which illuminate each fighter’s relative strengths.
The narrative is predictable on the surface: McGregor early, Holloway late—and the data supports this view. Both fighters exhibit excellent distance striking accuracy and somewhat mediocre head-strike avoidance. They tend to maintain high output while standing and trading, with few takedowns in their repertoires. So we should expect a prolonged stand-up exchange. The distinction lies in McGregor’s range and power. He has always been dangerous from the opening bell, but he has limited experience in longer fights beyond the early rounds, and there are persistent questions about his stamina after long layoffs and the inevitable ring rust. This mirrors Holloway’s late-round strength, where he piles up damage and wears opponents down with sustained volume. In a comeback fight as volatile as this, the numbers alone aren’t predictive. Still, Holloway seems better equipped to weather an early onslaught or to push McGregor into a cautious start, allowing Holloway to settle into his rhythm and finish strong. He must guard against giving McGregor’s power early by keeping his defense tight, especially given the greater punching power that comes with welterweight-ready McGregor in the opening exchanges.
Best bet: Side is an official pass. Over 1.5 rounds.
The fight history between these two is marked by high combined knockdowns, with 28 total knockdowns (18 by one fighter, 10 absorbed). Both punch hard and have absorbed significant damage, but a close lens on Garbrandt’s upcoming bout suggests his defensive liabilities could shape the outcome and justify a higher price. In a pure striking exchange, a fighter with leaky defense who has absorbed seven knockdowns, facing a younger, longer, more accurate striker, creates a scenario that’s difficult to ignore. The odds still tilt toward Yanez numerically, but the price is risky given Garbrandt’s scoring threats. The smarter play is to target the finish angle rather than the outright win.
Best bet: Fight Does Not Start Round 3 at even money.
This clash between top-five bantamweights could decide the order for upcoming title shots, and the numbers on paper reflect a tight contest. Both men are elite within the division and share very similar performance metrics. While Sandhagen may hold a stronger strength-of-schedule, Bautista edges him in pace, which has its own implications for betting value and market perception. On balance, the bout offers a close, competitive match that could go either way, with a slight lean toward Sandhagen due to broader experience against higher-caliber opposition. The decision may come down to who can impose their pace and maintain sharper output over the full distance, with a slight nod to Sandhagen’s steadier trajectory despite Bautista’s exciting and relentless pace.
In summary, the McGregor-Holloway matchup dominates the conversation, but the rest of the card has substantive spots with distinct narratives. Expect a night where the outcomes hinge on early tempo, defense under pressure, and the ability to capitalize on late-round dynamics. The best value often comes from looking beyond the loudest storyline and identifying the fights where the metrics suggest a more nuanced edge, whether through finish potential or a strategic pace battle.