​Since sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates in early June, the Atlanta Braves have stumbled to an 8-17 record, managing to win only one series in that stretch. But there’s a chance to change that on Thursday afternoon, in a spot that fits the matchup nicely against the Pirates. After a heavy loss in Game 1 and a late surge to win Game 2 without allowing a run, the Braves will wrap up their series in Pittsburgh on Thursday at 12:35 p.m. ET before heading to St. Louis for a weekend set.
If Atlanta hopes to take a series and start moving in the right direction, Bryce Elder will need a strong start on the mound to steady the ship. The right-hander’s 5-6 record and 4.01 ERA don’t reflect how he’s pitched lately. He hasn’t pitched since June 27, and he’s skipped through the order once after enduring a rough stretch in recent outings. After posting a 5-3 mark with a 2.66 ERA through his first 14 starts, Elder has dropped his last three starts, yielding 19 runs on 27 hits across 14 innings. In June, opposing hitters batted .313 and posted a 1.61 WHIP against him, tallying 35 hits and 24 runs in 26 2/3 innings.
Perhaps another start against Pittsburgh will be exactly what he needs to regain his form. His most effective showing this season came in Atlanta against the Pirates, when he allowed two runs on two hits over six innings. At that time, it marked his 10th quality start in 14 trips to the hill this year. Since then, he hasn’t come close to matching that level of effectiveness. In four career starts against Pittsburgh, Elder is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, having struck out 26 and walked five over 24 innings.
Elder will be opposed by Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. In the pre-Paul Skenes era, Keller looked like a potential centerpiece for Pittsburgh’s rotation, a former second-round pick who earned All-Star honors in 2023 and posted an ERA at or below 4.25 in each of the previous four seasons. But this season has tested him. Now 30, Keller sits at 6-6 with a 5.02 ERA, his highest since his first full year of work in 2021. Like Elder, Keller carried a strong ERA out of the gate that has since slipped. In six starts since June began, Keller is 1-4 with a 6.47 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and 13 walks over 32 innings. His slide began in his last May outing, but his June 5 start at Atlanta was particularly rough: six runs allowed on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings, tied for the second-most he has surrendered this season.
That performance against Atlanta has been a common thread in Keller’s history against the Braves, as he owns a 1-4 record and a 7.85 ERA in eight career starts versus Atlanta. After Atlanta excelled in rubber matches early this year—winning eight of their first nine decisive games—they have dropped their last four in deciding games of a series. Thursday presents another chance to snap that skid and rekindle momentum as the Braves push toward a more favorable stretch with a meeting against the Phillies and a broader push for consistency.
In this matchup, both teams will lean on their respective starters to set the tone. For the Braves, Elder’s capability to return to form could provide the margin they need to tilt the balance in Pittsburgh and regain momentum heading into St. Louis. For the Pirates, Keller’s performance will determine how long they can keep the game within reach and whether they can derail Atlanta’s efforts to string together a series victory. If Elder can rediscover his rhythm and navigate the Pirates’ lineup effectively, Atlanta could turn the page on a rough stretch and begin solidifying a resurgence that carries into the weekend and beyond. This game offers a renewed opportunity to reverse a recent trend of tight, late-series outcomes and reassert the Braves’ capability to close out series with authority.