​After nearly being overwhelmed by Ryan O’Hearn, the Atlanta Braves have now dropped at least three straight games on five separate occasions since the calendar turned to June. The current slide is worrying, but there’s no choice but to push forward as they aim to avoid losing a series to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Grant Holmes starts for the Braves in this matchup, and the primary challenge for him is getting through the Pirates’ lineup a second time. If he can navigate the order a second time, he’s well positioned to deliver a solid start. If he falters on the second trip through the lineup, we could see more struggles on the mound.
Holmes’ performance through the order has been strikingly uneven. On the initial trip through the lineup, he’s been a respectable pitcher, posting a 2.57 ERA and a line against of .197/.285/.283. The second time through, however, tends to be brutal for him, with an ERA ballooning to 6.99 and opponents hitting .311/.387/.664. The math improves only when he successfully passes through the order a third time, which has rarely happened this season. If he does reach a third time, his numbers can look much more favorable—an ERA around 1.84 with opposing hitters at .173/.283/.250. In practice, he’s faced 60 batters the third time through this season, compared with 144 batters first time and 137 second time. So while the simplistic takeaway is “Holmes must survive the second time through,” the reality is more nuanced, yet that second round remains the critical hurdle.
Holmes has shown some signs of improvement over his past three starts, countering the rough patch he experienced in mid-June, and the Braves will be hoping he maintains that momentum against a dangerous Pirates lineup. On the mound opposite him will be Jared Jones, making his first team start against Atlanta. Jones has been a roller coaster this season, producing a handful of outings with four earned runs or more in three of his seven starts. He’s also yet to complete five innings in more than one appearance, limiting his track record as a true, sustained threat. Yet his raw stuff is imposing: a fastball that averages around 99 mph (98.6 mph by Statcast) and an elite whiff rate of 32.8 percent. That combination has the potential to neutralize the Braves if he finds his rhythm early.
For the Braves, facing Jones could be a test of discipline and contact. Atlanta currently ranks toward the bottom of the league in contact quality on four-seamers, with a notable tendency to whiff: they’ve missed on about 23.3 percent of the fastballs they’ve seen this season. They also sit tied for third-worst in “perfect contact” rate on four-seamers, which means Jones can produce swings and misses or weak contact if they aren’t able to square him up. If Jones lands his fastball consistently and the Braves’ approach doesn’t adapt quickly, the Braves could find themselves chasing late. Conversely, if Atlanta can make the most of the opportunities to lay off the high-velocity offerings and stay patient, they may swing their fortunes back in their favor.
In terms of the game plan, the Braves will need Holmes to navigate the Pirates’ order beyond the second time through while keeping the game within reach. The coaching staff will likely emphasize quick adjustments, situational pitching, and efficient inning management to minimize the damage if the third time through the lineup is necessary. From a lineup perspective, Atlanta will benefit from forcing Jones to prove his command and control early, challenging him to consistently locate his pitches when the Braves are at the plate.
All told, this matchup presents a blend of uncertain momentum and potential adjustment. Holmes’ ability to survive the second trip through the order could be the defining factor in whether the Braves stop their skid and stabilize their standings, or whether the Pirates seize the moment and push Atlanta deeper into a slump. The outcome may hinge on a handful of early outs, and the Braves’ hitters will need to stay patient, identify Jones’ patterns quickly, and capitalize on the opportunities that arise as the game unfolds.