​The Ohio State Buckeyes sit at the top of ESPN’s FPI rankings to begin the 2026 season. FPI, which stands for the Football Power Index, is an objective, numbers-driven assessment rather than a subjective opinion. The rankings are built from a combination of inputs including expected points added, coaching changes, recruiting rankings from both transfer and high school levels, returning starters, and historical data. Each factor is given a value, combined in a “pot,” and produced as a single score. For Ohio State this year, that number is +28.7, indicating the expected margin of victory against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field. To illustrate, if Ohio State faced Michigan State, which sits at +0.3 FPI, on a neutral surface, the model predicts the Buckeyes would win by about 28 points. Put simply, ESPN’s FPI projects that Ohio State will be dominant again in 2026.
In addition to the headlining ranking, Ohio State is continuing to build its roster and maintain pressure on recruiting trails. The Buckeyes recently landed a major five-star defensive lineman, marking the second five-star addition of this recruiting cycle. The continued emphasis on elite talent suggests Ohio State’s staff is not resting on its laurels and remains committed to strengthening the program at every level.
The FPI model also estimates Ohio State’s overall win total for the season. Based on the latest projections, the Buckeyes are forecast to win approximately 10.2 games while losing about 2.4. Notre Dame is the only program predicted to exceed them with a projected 10.7 wins and 1.3 losses. The model also pegs Ohio State with a 75 percent chance of reaching the playoff field. A quick note: while playoff formats continue to be discussed, the current framework does not foresee expanding to 24 teams; such an expansion would likely change many regular-season dynamics.
Looking ahead, Ohio State has the potential to be exceptionally dominant again in 2026. If their schedule mirrors last year’s in terms of difficulty, an undefeated run would be plausible. However, the calendar this season is demanding, featuring multiple high-profile tests that will require the Buckeyes to be precise every week. In my view, achieving a record of at least 9-3 would be considered a major success given the level of competition they will face. Inevitably, there will be some slip-ups, but losses to strong opponents are part of the process and can drive a team to improve. History shows that head coach Ryan Day has the capacity to steer the team toward peak performance at the most critical moments. We’ve seen it play out in 2024, witnessed a contrasting trend in 2025, and the expectation for 2026 is that Day can navigate the schedule so that Ohio State’s January ranking reflects the strong standing suggested by its July projection.
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