​Chael Sonnen believes Conor McGregor has a narrow path to victory against Max Holloway. Thirteen years after their featherweight showdown in the UFC, McGregor and Holloway are set to meet again, this time at welterweight. The two fighters will collide at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Ahead of the highly anticipated numbered event, Sonnen shared his thoughts on how the Irish star could emerge victorious.
Sonnen praised McGregor for attempting a comeback after his leg injury that sidelined him in 2021, but he did not sugarcoat the difficulty of the challenge awaiting the former two-division champion. “Well, I’m inspired right now by Conor McGregor, and I don’t think there are very many famous elitist millionaires who could inspire me, but he is really tackling something big here,” Sonnen said during a recent preview on Paramount+. “First off, that’s the worst injury that I’ve ever seen. I’ve seen three other guys have it, but I’ve never seen an injury worse than this. He’s returning to a weight class outside of his prime, which historically has never worked out successfully, even in the boxing world.”
Sonnen went on to note that McGregor has also taken on a five-round fight schedule, a demanding format that is tougher to manage now than it was when McGregor was younger and less beset by injuries. The veteran analyst underscored the weight-class switch, suggesting that “working less hard now” isn’t an ideal sign for the comeback ahead of a long-awaited return after a significant hiatus. Sonnen’s take implies that McGregor’s best route to victory hinges on catching Holloway early, before Holloway can impose his pace and volume.
If anyone believes McGregor can prevail, Sonnen contends, those who favor a victory for the Irish star are likely envisioning a knockout. In Sonnen’s view, an early finish—perhaps a first-round knockout—would be McGregor’s most probable path to victory. He framed this assessment as a likely outcome for those who think McGregor will win by knockout, emphasizing that any victory beyond an early finish would require a highly improbable sequence given the ring rust, weight-class adjustment, and the durability Holloway has shown throughout his career.
Sonnen’s analysis reflects his broader respect for McGregor’s resilience and ambition, even as he remains skeptical about converting that ambition into a win at a new weight against a relentless, high-output opponent like Holloway. The assessment also highlights the unique pressures facing a fighter who is returning after a lengthy layoff, changing divisions, and taking on a fellow elite with a proven ability to swell the pace and push a fight to the later rounds.
In the run-up to UFC 329, fans and pundits will scrutinize McGregor’s chances against Holloway with heightened attention. Sonnen’s remarks contribute to a larger conversation about how this resurgent chapter for McGregor might unfold—the possibility of a marquee return at welterweight, the challenge of competing against an opponent known for relentless pressure, and the potential for a dramatic finish if McGregor can land an early shot. As the July 11 date approaches, all eyes will be on whether McGregor can reverse the odds, deliver a decisive moment, and prove that his comeback at welterweight can yield a victory against one of Holloway’s formidable contemporaries.