​The Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time in more than ten years last season, and one NFL analyst believes they’ll have a tough road back. The Chiefs were effectively eliminated when quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending injury in a December defeat, leaving them to finish out their schedule without him. Now they must navigate an aging roster and an uncertain pipeline for Mahomes, which led Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski to project a challenging path for the team in 2026.
Bleacher Report released an early power ranking that placed the Chiefs at No. 17, a position that feels strange given their recent contending status. Sobleski emphasized that there is no clear timetable for Mahomes’ return. “The Chiefs find themselves in a spot the organization hasn’t experienced in over a decade. Andy Reid and Co. are entering a campaign after not making the playoffs thanks to a non-winning season,” Sobleski wrote. “Furthermore, Patrick Mahomes experienced his first major injury and the timetable for his return remains up in the air.” While Mahomes has been progressing in his rehabilitation and is expected to be ready for the start of the season, ESPN’s Adam Schefter warned that it could take longer for him to regain his elite form. Players often need more time to fully bounce back from a torn ACL, and Schefter suggested Mahomes may not be at his MVP level right away. “The real question will be not whether he plays, but how effective he’ll be,” Schefter said.
If Mahomes is not ready to begin the season, the Chiefs attempted to mitigate the risk by acquiring a high-profile quarterback as insurance, trading for former first-round pick Justin Fields. Sobleski pointed out that the concerns extend beyond Mahomes’ status. He argued that the Chiefs did not make enough substantial improvements to the roster after a disappointing 2025 season, leaving several offensive and defensive weaknesses unaddressed.
“From a roster standpoint, Kansas City isn’t significantly better today than it was a year ago,” Sobleski wrote. “Kenneth Walker III’s addition should help balance the offense and place a greater emphasis on the Chiefs’ ground game. Otherwise, this squad has a lot to prove and shouldn’t be viewed as a Super Bowl contender.”
Another area of concern is at wide receiver, where Rashee Rice remains a central figure with an uncertain future. Rice faced legal trouble this offseason, including a 30-day jail sentence for a felony street-racing conviction, a sentence that was initially delayed but was carried out after a failed drug test. Sobleski noted that it cannot be assumed the Chiefs will always be able to compete in a stacked AFC.
“Kansas City must first prove it’s capable of returning to the postseason,” Sobleski wrote.
In summary, the Chiefs confront not only questions about Mahomes’ health and return-to-form timing but also broader roster issues and the evolving competitive landscape of the AFC. The path back to playoff contention, and potentially back to deep postseason runs, will depend on Mahomes’ readiness, the effectiveness of a retooled supporting cast, and the team’s ability to address the gaps on both sides of the ball.