​We are down to the final four, but which of the remaining teams in the 2026 World Cup will reach the final at MetLife Stadium near New York City on Sunday? BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton believes the semi-final between France and Spain should be the decider for the title based on what he has seen. Spain, he argues, are the best team in terms of style and how they control matches, while France possess the firepower and flair to win games decisively.
In the other half of the draw, England have not shown their best form, Sutton observes. Instead, they have relied on big moments to get through each tie and have benefited from a relatively gentle route so far. Still, he thinks England have a genuine chance of advancing past Argentina for a variety of reasons.
Sutton, AI, and the BBC predictor game users are forecasting the outcomes of all 104 matches at this World Cup. All three correctly identified the winners of the four quarter-finals, giving the users an insurmountable overall lead with 100 of the tournament’s 104 matches completed. Chris and AI have each been correct 65 times (65%), while the public is ahead with a score of 72% correct. The AI predictions were generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat, where we simply asked the tool to predict the results of the World Cup semi-final ties. The BBC predictor game invites readers to choose a winner from each knockout tie.
I’m at this tie for BBC Radio 5 Live and can’t wait. For me, France and Spain have been the two standout teams of this tournament—whoever wins this match will likely lift the World Cup. The one disappointment with Spain has been Lamine Yamal’s form so far; he hasn’t consistently hit his top level. He’s found himself on the periphery in several games, and during their last-16 win over Portugal, Nuno Mendes managed him comfortably. Yamal will be up against France’s left-back Lucas Digne, and he may relish the one-on-one battle. Spain will certainly need him to rise to the occasion.
Yamal’s performance could weigh heavily on the outcome, especially given that he scored in the Euro 2024 semi-final against France, suggesting he can influence big moments. Yet, I still find it hard to back against France as the winners. France have struck 16 goals across six matches to reach this stage, and they have won all of them within 90 minutes — only Argentina, with 17 goals, have more, and four of France’s goals have come in extra time. France are likely to sit in on the counter-attack, and given Spain’s brave approach to keeping possession and pressing high, France could have several dangerous breaks.
Spain have conceded only one goal so far, but Belgium caused them more danger on the counter in the last round, and France’s pace and quality up front could exploit that. How Yamal performs could also influence the match’s direction, but the broader strategic matchup—France’s counter-attacking menace against Spain’s ball dominance and high pressing—suggests a tightly contested encounter with multiple momentum swings. While Spain will need Yamal to deliver a standout performance, the edge for me remains with France as the potential World Cup champions.