​Colombia and Ghana drifted through much of the group phase unnoticed, but they have reached tonight’s Round of 32 showdown. Colombia enter as clear favorites at -199, and I expect them to win a low-scoring game. Here are my Colombia vs. Ghana predictions and World Cup picks for Friday, July 3, with kickoff at 9:30 p.m. ET in Kansas City.
Pick: Colombia to win (-199). Colombia have not hit top form yet in this tournament, but their attacking quality could overwhelm Ghana. The group stage showed they are more comfortable on the ball and can dominate possession, pinning Ghana back in their own half. Whether they can convert plenty of territorial advantages into goals remains to be seen; in their games against Portugal and DR Congo, they had 44 shots with 15 on target and only one goal. Still, even a single goal might be enough against a defensively minded Ghana. Ghana’s plan has been to defend deeply, and they may struggle to shift to an attacking approach if needed. I favor Colombia to win in regulation time.
Under 2.5 goals (-149) is another strong look. The six combined Group K and L matches featuring Colombia and Ghana averaged 1.50 goals per game, with Under 2.5 hitting in four of those six and Under 1.5 in three. Ghana will likely deploy a cautious, low-block strategy and remain content to keep the score tight. Colombia created eight “Big Chances” in the group stage, but half came in one game against Uzbekistan, and they lack a world-class scorer. Much of their sharp attacking play often ends without a finish. An early goal by either side could change the dynamic, but otherwise both teams will be patient. Back the Under to -150.
Projected lineups
Colombia (4-2-3-1): Vargas; Munoz, Sanchez, Lucumi, Mojica; Puerta, Lerma; Arias, Rodriguez, Diaz; Suarez
Ghana (4-3-3): Asare; Senaya, Adjetey, Opoku, Mensah; Partey, Sibo, Yirenkyi; Semenyo, Ayew, Kamaldeen
Injuries: Colombia and Ghana report no key injuries. Weather: hot and dry in Kansas City.