​Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Four games into the season, the Cowboys stand at a slightly disappointing 2-2, but with the hope that the addition of Joey Porter Jr. will be the start of a defensive turnaround.Since the league moved to a 17-game schedule in 2020, 63 teams started the season 2-2, and 25 of those teams (40%) eventually made the playoffs. The table below shows what the playoff chances have looked like over the last six seasons by W/L after the fourth game of the season.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td,
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th,
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table {
border: 1px solid #000 !important;
border-collapse: collapse !important;
}
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td,
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th {
padding: 0px 6px !important;
}
Playoff chances based on Week 4 W/L records, since 2020 Record after Week 44-03-12-21-30-4Total Teams1449635313Playoff Teams14382570Percentage100%78%40%13%0%But how good are the 2-2 Cowboys really, and more importantly, can they start stacking some wins soon?To understand where the Cowboys currently stand and what their chances look like going forward, we turn once again to the trusted Pythagorean Formula. We’ve used the formula often before (for more details, go here) to measure overall team strength, on the hypothesis that a team’s true strength could be measured more accurately by looking at points scored and points allowed, rather than by looking at wins and losses.After four weeks of play, there is already quite a strong correlation between the win-projection and the actual season-ending W/L record. Of course, with every additional week of data, the formula gets better, but after about Week 4 the improvements are gradual, and not as steep as in the first few weeks. To illustrate that, let’s look at the four teams in the NFC East and how their Pythagorean Wins developed week by week last season:Notice how the Pythagorean Formula last year was already projecting the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants pretty accurately after Week 4: The Eagles were already looking like 11-game winners, the Cowboys were projected for six wins, one shy of their eventual win total, and the Giants were slightly ahead of their eventual four-win total. The Commanders started out strong, but then multiple injuries to Jayden Daniels derailed their season.The point here is that barring a meltdown like the Commanders had last season, or a surge later in the season, a couple of weeks worth of data can provide an early indication of where the train might be headed.In four games so far this season, the Cowboys have scored 122 points (T2nd) and allowed 112 (29th). The Pythagorean projected wins for this stat line: 9.4 wins, and adjusted for the games already played: 9.2 wins.Even outside of the historic playoff chances, that win total suggests it’ll be tight for the Cowboys to make the playoffs, barring a significant improvement on defense. Using