​Ben Solak of ESPN has identified a breakout candidate for each NFL team as the 2026 season approaches, and his pick for the Indianapolis Colts is wide receiver Josh Downs. Solak cautions that he isn’t predicting a full-blown Jaxon Smith-Njigba-type explosion from Downs as the rookie moves into a more versatile, hybrid role. Downs, Solak notes, is notably shorter and lighter than Smith-Njigba, but he believes Downs shares JSN’s fluidity as a route runner. That polished technique, Solak argues, could help Downs earn deeper targets as Colts head coach Shane Steichen designs free releases off the line to give him more space to operate.
In 2025, Downs remained a significant part of the Colts’ offense, compiling 84 targets. However, his opportunity and production dipped after the team added tight end Tyler Warren, which changed how defenses must defend the Colts. Despite that shift, Downs continued to be an efficient target for quarterback Daniel Jones and emerged as a reliable option in critical situations. Solak nonetheless expects more volume to come Downs’ way in 2026, particularly after the departure of Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh. With Pittman now out of the lineup, roughly 110 targets from last season are up for grabs, and Downs is positioned to be a major beneficiary of that redistribution. Solak believes that while a group effort will be required to replace Pittman’s production, Downs should play a central role in meeting that demand.
Solak also thinks there could be a production uptick if Steichen retools Downs’ usage, giving him more chances away from the line of scrimmage. He notes that Downs ranks 111th in air yards per target among 121 high-volume receivers since entering the league in 2023. If Steichen nudges Downs to average a deeper target depth, Downs could be primed for a breakout season in terms of production. As it stands, Downs is entering the final year of his rookie contract, so a strong 2026 season would not only bolster the Colts’ passing game but also underscore Downs’ value as a developing playmaker and potential long-term asset for the team.
This assessment originated with Colts Wire, where ESPN analysts identified Colts players likely to breakout in 2026. The projection underscores Downs as a player to watch for the Colts this coming season, especially given the opportunity that will arise from Pittman’s departure and Steichen’s offensive scheming. The broader takeaway is that Downs has the tools to grow into a pivotal piece of the Colts’ aerial attack, provided the coaching staff leverages him in an expanded role and targets him more frequently beyond the line of scrimmage.