​Summer − it’s a time of optimism for most NFL fans.Nearly half of the league’s teams are striving to build on playoff runs from the previous season. The remainder are hoping a clean slate − and perhaps a few veteran acquisitions and/or promising incoming rookies, maybe even a new coach − can spark a resurgence. In a league where regression toward the mean (read: parity) is virtually unavoidable, just about everyone has a viable shot to thrive.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe NFL will proudly tell you that for 36 straight seasons, going back to 1990, at least four teams made the playoffs after failing to qualify in the previous one. It’s also become fairly routine to go from last place to first. At least one team has risen from its divisional outhouse to the penthouse year over year in 20 of the past 23 seasons − including three squads (Panthers, Bears, Patriots) in 2025.1 / 4OT Tytus Howard: Traded to Cleveland Browns (previous team: Houston Texans)(Troy Taormina, Imagn Images)Of course, not everyone views their football world in a rosy hue. Those who see half-empty glasses, embrace the data of what’s basically a zero-sum proposition or merely identify with Eeyore know that, for every tale of NFL success, failure is just as likely.Over the past decade, nine clubs have had the bottom fall out, falling from a divisional throne to last place in the span of a year − including six since the start of the 2020 season. In 2025, it happened to the Detroit Lions, who were fresh off being the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.”I think that’s the nature of the league,” first-year Lions offensive coordinator Drew Petzing said during OTAs last month.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement”We’ve got to show up, we’ve got to get better, we’ve got to be where we want to be. I think you’re always going to feel that to some extent.”It’s hard to stay on top, but chances are that one of last season’s division rulers won’t only abdicate but will plummet to the bottom of the standings. Here are our rankings of all eight candidates eligible to make a first-to-worst tumble in 2026, from least likely to most:WORST TO FIRST: Ranking 8 NFL teams’ chances of jumping to top of division in 2026What’s working for them: Aligned as the stars were in 2025, credit the reigning AFC champs for the impressive worst-to-first about-face that landed them in Super Bowl 60. An offense that ranked third last year could be even more formidable now that league MVP runner-up Drake Maye, who will be 24 when the season starts, will team with newly acquired WRs A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Second-year RB TreVeyon Henderson, who started four games as a rookie, could take another significant step given the upgrades at receiver. But perhaps the best safeguard protecting the Pats from a catastrophic reversal is the division they play in − and it’s rather difficult to see them falling behind either the Jets or Dolphins, projected as two of the league’s worst outfits in 2026, but cert